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TechStock Radar
September 2018
Friday, September 21, 2018, 10:44 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Electronic Arts

Shares of Electronic Arts (EA, $115.88) are attempting to push off of recent lows. The stock has been consolidating around current levels for the past three weeks, with buyers stepping in on dips below the $111 level. 

The momentum indicators are showing signs of improvement after retreating to oversold territory. There is short-term resistance at $116.50.

For more on Electronic Arts, see TechStock Radar—Sept. 5, 2018.

Friday, September 21, 2018, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
OpCo Remains Bullish on Nutanix

Oppenheimer reiterates its Nutanix (NTNX, $48.41) price target of $70, saying it came away from recent meetings with management confident in the company’s opportunity, strategy, execution and competitive position. 

The firm believes Google is not likely to compete with Nutanix, so it sees the recent weakness in the stock as a buying opportunity.

For more on Nutanix, see TechStock Radar—Sept. 18, 2018.

Friday, September 21, 2018, 9:45 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Sept Issue of TSP Available on Kindle

Download the new issue of Tech-Stock Prospector to your Kindle or Kindle reading app for iOS (iPad & iPhone) and Android. 

Order the latest issue of TSP here.

Here are some of the topics covered in the September 2018 issue:

*Dealing with a surge in healthcare data
*How data visualization unlocks useful insights
*Talend enables data analytics
*Veeva expands its product portfolio
*Another solid quarter from Salesforce
*Workday sees opportunity in planning
*Trend Watch: Enterprise cloud transitions
*Zendesk delivers revenue upside
*Accelerated growth at Splunk
*Coupa Software makes a smart purchase

*Apple looks to video content for new growth
*Facebook transitions to the Stories format
*Zuora shakes up the ERP software space
*Why some smart investors like Nutanix
*Small-Cap Watch: Varonis shares rebound
*Positive sentiment returns to HubSpot
*Tech Focus: Desktops as a Service
*Alteryx steadily builds its customer base
*A game delay for Electronic Arts
*Deal Report: Analysis of Tenable IPO

Thursday, September 20, 2018, 10:52 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Skyworks

Shares of Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, $91.35) are in rebound mode following the sharp drop from the summer highs. 

From the July 20 high of $103.95, the stock had fallen 20% at the September 12 low of $83.05.

This week’s rally has pushed through the downtrend line from the July high. The shares are approaching the 50-day moving average at $92.97. There’s short-term resistance at $94.40.

Thursday, September 20, 2018, 10:38 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Stifel Lifts Square Target to $100

Stifel raises its Square (SQ, $86.43) price target to $100 from $76, saying it expects continued momentum from larger sellers, as the company’s retail ecosystem keeps evolving and partnership efforts expand its reach for potential cross- and up-selling. 

For more on Square, see TechStock Radar—August 29, 2018.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018, 11:07 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Zuora

Shares of Zuora (ZUO, $22.49) are testing the July support level at $22.50. The next support stands at $20 from late May. The RSI is falling from 34.8. 

The stock is now down 40% from the post-IPO high of $37.78 reached in June.

Zuora, provider of a cloud-based subscription management software platform, went public in April 2018 at $14 a share, with an opening trade at $20.25.

Wednesday, September 19, 2018, 10:32 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
JP Morgan Trims Facebook Target

JP Morgan trims its Facebook (FB, $159.58) price target to $195 from $205 to reflect reduced 2019 and 2020 earnings estimates, saying it doesn’t think the company’s investment increases are fully captured in consensus estimates.

Facebook is a company in transition, as it pushes Stories more prominently on the core platform and rolls out stronger privacy tools for users, says JP Morgan. The firm thinks investments in 2019 could be larger than anticipated by Wall Street.

Tuesday, September 18, 2018, 12:18 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Nutanix Rebounds After Sell-Off

Shares of Nutanix (NTNX, $49.91) are on the rebound by 7.5% this morning following yesterday’s 11.5% pullback on concerns about potential competition in hyperconverged infrastructure (combining server, storage and networking) from Google.

The Alphabet (GOOGL) unit released a statement that it is not building customized appliances for external sale, and that it isn’t trying to compete with partners in this segment.

Piper Jaffray thinks the sell-off was overdone, saying most enterprises would choose to leverage a multi-cloud infrastructure and would not want to be locked into a single cloud provider. The firm maintains its NTNX price target of $66.

William Blair says fears of Google entering the hyperconverged space are overblown. Even if it did, it would have a long way to go to establish itself in the enterprise against established players such as Nutanix and VMware (VMW), says the firm. 

Tuesday, September 18, 2018, 11:54 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Barclays Lifts MongoDB PT to $105

Barclays raises its MongoDB (MDB, $82.30) price target to $105 from $79, saying the company looks well positioned as the leading vendor in the NoSQL database market, which it estimates will grow at more than a 30% CAGR through 2023.

MongoDB went public in October 2017 at $24, with an opening trade at $33.  The all-time high of $85.25 was reached on September 11.

Monday, September 17, 2018, 11:20 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
KeyBanc Bullish on Shopify

KeyBanc maintains its Shopify (SHOP, $156.67) price target of $182, saying the company is best-positioned to benefit from growth in emerging brands, citing Rebecca Minkoff and Kyle Cosmetics as current users. The firm sees “ample” growth opportunities ahead for the company.

Monday, September 17, 2018, 11:09 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BofA/Merrill Ups NXP Semi to 'Buy'

BofA/Merrill upgrades NXP Semi (NXPI, $92.03) to ‘Buy’ and raises its price target to $120 from $110 based on a potential revenue growth recovery driven by new automotive and IoT products. 

The firm also calls out the company’s stronger balance sheet, FCF growth and buybacks. 

Friday, September 14, 2018, 3:47 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Needham Ups NVIDIA Target to $350

Needham raises its NVIDIA (NVDA, $276.21) price target to $350 from $325, saying recent discussions with the datacenter GM about the company’s dominance in AI/machine learning reminded it of the “Wintel” platform during the PC computing era.

The firm believes NVIDIA is “uniquely positioned” to capitalize on the next wave of computing, taking a larger inference market share with its new TensorRT Hyperscale Platform.

Needham raises its forecast for NVIDIA’s FY’20 datacenter revenue by $500 million to account for an incremental number of servers deployed with GPU accelerators. 

Friday, September 14, 2018, 3:36 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Consolidation in Cybersecurity

The privileged access management (PAM) spaced heated up this week with news that privately held BeyondTrust would be acquired by fellow PAM vendor Bomgar, which itself was purchased in April 2018 by private-equity firm Francisco Partners.

Bomgar CEO Matt Dircks will lead the combined company, which will take the BeyondTrust name. The combo will have roughly 20,000 customers (BeyondTrust standalone has more than 4,000 enterprise customers), with an estimated $300 million in annual bookings.

Expected to close in October, the transaction is estimated to be worth more than $600 million by JMP Securities. 

The deal reflects a consolidation trend in the PAM market and reaffirms the health of the sector, both of which are favorable for CyberArk Software (CYBR, $75.38), says JMP. 

Based on a boost in the market valuation multiples as well as increased confidence in the health of the PAM market, the firm ups its CYBR price target to $86 from $75. The stock this week hit a new all-time high at $78.36.

Thursday, September 13, 2018, 9:45 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Barclays Sets Qualcomm PT at $95

Barclays reinstates coverage of Qualcomm (QCOM, $74.15) at ‘Overweight’ with a price target of $95. The firm believes resolutions with Apple and Huawei, along with large share buybacks and the ramp of 5G could drive “material” upside to earnings estimates. 

The FY’19 (Sept.) consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days has advanced 29 cents to $4.41.

Qualcomm shares this morning hit a new 52-week high at $74.25.

Thursday, September 13, 2018, 9:21 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
UBS Bullish on Apple Pricing

UBS maintains its Apple (AAPL, $221.07) price target of $250, saying yesterday’s product launch was largely as expected, with some interesting new Watch features that appear to be pushing the company into the healthcare market. 

The firm believes the pricing of the products supports upside bias to consensus earnings. The iPhone 7 is now the entry-level handset at $449, vs. the SE at $349 previously. The new high-end XS Max has an entry price of $1,099.

Wednesday, September 12, 2018, 10:29 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Zscaler

Shares of Zscaler (ZS, $40.58) are down 5.5% this morning on the IPO lock-up expiration, testing the 50-day moving average at $40.32.

On the most recent rally, the stock reversed at $47.79, failing to take out the post-IPO high of $48.24 reached on August 28.

There’s short-term support at $39.62 and $39.05. 

Wednesday, September 12, 2018, 9:49 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
2 Divergent Views on NXP Semi

Stifel downgrades NXP Semi (NXPI, $87.77) to ‘Sell’ and reduces its price target to $84 from $99, arguing that multiple recent industry data points seem to suggest that the analog and mixed-signal semiconductor markets have peaked.

Amid the potentially peaking semi cycle, NXP has re-emerged with a post-takeover plan for a massive buyback, which translates into higher debt, says the firm. 

Stifel is particularly concerned, given the peaking industry condition, that rising interest rates increase the risk for debt-heavy firms.

On the other side, Jefferies maintains its price target of $125, saying it left NXP Semi’s analyst day with higher conviction on its ‘Buy’ thesis. 

The firm continues to believe NXP will benefit from “superior” revenue growth due to its exposure to the Internet of Things, industrial and auto markets. 

Jefferies thinks the stock’s P/E can expand thanks to the company’s increased capital return.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018, 9:32 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
First Analysis Positive on Qualys

First Analysis remains upbeat on Qualys (QLYS, $93.09), maintaining its price target of $112. 

The firm believes a “buoyant” security spending environment and up-selling opportunities will boost the company’s revenue growth rate to the low-to-mid 20% range by 2021.

First Analysis says it is more confident in Qualys’ product platform generating above-market revenue growth and expanding EBITDA margins after meeting with management.

The 2018 consensus revenue estimate of $278.7 million represent growth of 20.8%, while the 2019 consensus indicates growth of 18.5%. The company’s revenue in Q2 was up 23%.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018, 9:17 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Stifel Bullish on Activision Blizzard

Stifel thinks the upcoming holiday video game line-up is the best that has been seen during the current console cycle in terms of quantity of AAA titles. 

The firm adds Activision Blizzard (ATVI, $74.26) to its Select List based on expectations for a solid holiday season, building anticipation ahead of BlizzCon 2018 (November 2-3), and further news flow for the Overwatch League.

Stifel removes Electronic Arts (EA, $113.21) from the Select List (although maintains its ‘Buy’ rating) and lowers its price target to $140 from $159, saying pre-sales for “Battlefield V” look “underwhelming.”

The firm raises its Take-Two Interactive (TTWO, $129.16) price target to $144 from $137, citing its growing optimism for “Red Dead Redemption 2” based on pre-sales analysis.

Monday, September 10, 2018, 9:46 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Loop Capital Ups Apple PT to $256

Loop Capital lifts its Apple (AAPL, $219.14) price target to $256 from $220 and raises its earnings estimates for FY’18 and FY’19, saying it expects the new iPhone product mix to be “materially more favorable.” The firm thinks Wall Street is underestimating demand for the LCD version of the iPhone.

Monday, September 10, 2018, 9:39 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BTIG Downgrades Zscaler

BTIG Research downgrades Zscaler (ZS, $44.08) to ‘Neutral’ based on valuation. 

The firm still maintains that Zscaler can be a disruptive force in cybersecurity, becoming “one of the next generation’s leading vendors,” but thinks investors should wait for a better entry point opportunity. 

In late August, Zscaler hit a new post-IPO high of $48.24. The company went public in March 2018 at $16 a share, with an opening trade at $27.50.

Friday, September 7, 2018, 10:49 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
A New High for HubSpot

HubSpot (HUBS, $153.25) shares are up 4% this morning and have reached a new all-time high at $153.50.

HubSpot, provider of a cloud-based marketing & sales software platform, is a holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Small-Cap Portfolio, added in July 2016 at $42.52. 

The stock’s total return since then is +260%.

Friday, September 7, 2018, 10:31 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Okta Jumps 22% on Strong FQ2 Report

Shares of Okta (OKTA, $73.35) are surging more than 21% this morning after the provider of a cloud-based identity management platform reported strong FQ2 (July) results, with revenue rising 57% to $94.6 million, beating the consensus estimate by 11.5%.

Subscription revenue advanced 59%, maintaining the same high growth rate from FQ1. Billings rose 53%.

For FY’19 (Jan.), Okta now sees revenue of $372 million to $375 million, up from the previous guide of $353 million to $357 million. The consensus estimate was $356.4 million.

JP Morgan raises its Okta price target to $88 from $63, saying increased large-customer adoption drove the big FQ2 beat. A combination of both employee identity and customer identity marketplaces creates a very large addressable market that Okta is reaching both directly and through partners, says the firm. 

OpCo lifts its OKTA target to $80 from $60 because it believes the company is still early into its “sizable” opportunity, particularly with respect to larger organizations shifting to cloud environments.

Thursday, September 6, 2018, 9:44 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Facebook

Facebook (FB, $165.47) shares are extending their short-term move to the downside after failing last week to get back above the 200-day moving average of $181.47. The RSI is down to 30.1.

The July low of $166.56 has been taken out. The next support level stands at $156.19 from April.

The 50-day moving average is trending downward from $187.43, setting up a potential downside crossover of the 200-day moving average.

Thursday, September 6, 2018, 9:34 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Stifel Ups Cloudera Target to $22

Stifel thinks Cloudera (CLDR, $16.67) is “heading in the right direction” after another “encouraging” earnings report. 

The firm lifts its price target to $22 from $19 because it’s optimistic that subscription revenue growth can re-accelerate in FY’20. Stifel believes Cloudera’s multiple can expand as execution improves over FY’19.

In FQ2 (July), revenue rose 23% to $110.3 million, above the consensus estimate of $107.6 million. Subscription revenue (84% of total revenue) increased 26%.

For FY’19 (Jan.), Cloudera expects revenue of $440 million to $450 million, vs. the consensus of $441.6 million.

Wednesday, September 5, 2018, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Barclays Lowers EA PT to $132

Barclays lowers its Electronic Arts (EA, $112.01) price target to $132 from $162 to reflect the delayed release of Battlefield V. 

While pushing out the game by roughly a month removes it from a bad release window (sandwiched between Call of Duty and Red Dead Redemption), the firm says EA did not make the decision from a position of strength even though the move will give the title more space to stand out.

Wednesday, September 5, 2018, 9:56 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
3 Bulls on Workday

Piper Jaffray raises its Workday (WDAY, $146.63) price target to $170 from $160 after the company last night reported FQ2 (July) results that beat the consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue rose 28%, driven by 30% growth in subscription revenue.

Canaccord and JMP Securities are even more bullish, both raising their targets to $175. JMP thinks Workday shares deserve a premium valuation given the company’s strong leadership team and “enviable competitive positioning.”

Workday shares are selling off this morning after hitting a new all-time high yesterday at $157.12.

Tuesday, September 4, 2018, 9:56 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Canaccord Lifts Apple Target to $250

Canaccord raises its Apple (AAPL, $227.25) price target to $250 from $220, saying its North America survey work indicates the company has maintained its leading market share at all four major U.S. carriers. Overall iPhone sales remain resilient, with likely more than 50% share at those carriers.

Given the strong consumer satisfaction with the iPhone, the firm anticipates Apple will continue to grow its global share of the premium smartphone market. In addition, Apple’s ecosystem will contribute to strong ongoing growth for services revenue, says Canaccord.

Tuesday, September 4, 2018, 9:46 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
MoffettNathanson Downgrades Facebook

MoffettNathanson downgrades Facebook (FB, $170.03) to ‘Neutral’ and lowers its price target to $175 from $200 because it believes the shift in engagement and monetization to Stories from News Feed will be a headwind to revenue growth. 

The firm also expects 2019 operating income growth to slow to the low teens, which should limit further multiple expansion.

Facebook faces increased regulatory scrutiny worldwide and is transitioning away from a “frictionless model,” in which both user-generated content and advertising were largely unsupervised by humans, to one with higher investments and security, says MoffettNathanson.

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