Profits are being taken in some recent big gainers. This makes sense as the September quarter comes to an end.

Here are some of today’s big tech losers:

Acme Packet (APKT, $37.80) -5.8%

NetApp (NTAP, $48.90) -3.7%

Qlik Technologies (QLIK, $21.24) -8.7%

Compellent Technologies (CML, $18.28) -4.2%

Sourcefire (FIRE, $27.82) -4.7%

Tech leader Apple (AAPL, $282.79) is off more than 4 points.

Avian Securities boosts its F5 Networks (FFIV, $106.39) price target to $116, saying channel checks indicate demand for BIG-IP platforms remains strong heading into FQ1 2011.

For fiscal Q4 (September), analyst Catharine Trebnick sees solid demand across the media/content, financial and telecom verticals. Her September quarter checks show the following key trends:

*Application delivery product refresh cycle is underway

*Enterprise CIOs are adding more ADCs due to increased number of applications being utilized in the enterprise

*Internet traffic up 40% y/y, which is driving more volume across high-volume applications

Avian lifts its fiscal Q4 estimates to EPS of 72 cents on revenue of $248.8 million from 70 cents/$245 million. The consensus estimates: 71 cents/$247.2 million.

Stifel Nicolaus takes its Apple (AAPL, $287.37) price target up to $360, saying recent channel checks indicate iPad and iPod shipments are tracking ahead of its previous estimates.

The firm also says it has more confidence about future iPad sales after seeing the new competitive offerings in the tablet space, which don’t look very menacing.

On the iPhone front, demand in China is coming in better than expected and U.S. sales look to be on track.

When does Apple take out $300? That’s the big question.

Shares of Oclaro (OCLR, $16.30) are up 59% just since the end of August. The stock is up 10% today after Miller Tabak boosted its price target to $25 from $17.50.

The company supplies optical-network components, modules and subsystems to telecom-equipment manufacturers. Oclaro also designs and manufactures advanced photonic solutions for non-telecom markets, including the material processing, consumer and medical verticals.

Oclaro was formed in early 2009 through the merger of Bookham and Avanex. In the middle of last year, the company acquired the Newport Spectra Physics high-power laser diodes business.

For the June quarter, Oclaro reported EPS of 22 cents, three cents above the consensus estimate, on revenue of $112.7 million, in line with the consensus. The company issued upside guidance for fiscal Q1, forecasting revenue of $120 million to $126 million, vs. the consensus of $119.8 million.

Oclaro has a market cap of $884 million and estimated fiscal 2011 (June) revenue of $517 million. The consensus EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $1.04.

Fidelity is the #1 holder of Oclaro, with 2.38 million shares. The firm picked up 1.7 million shares in Q2. Kopp Investment is #2, holding 2.2 million shares. Friess Associates (#5) opened a position in Q2 of 1.47 million shares and Westfield Capital (#6) initiated a position of 1.34 million shares.

Other big buyers in Q2: Barclays Global, Blackrock Fund Advisors, RS Investment Management, State Street and Needham.

What happened to that rumored takeover of Radware (RDWR, $31.97)?

The stock surged 38% on September 14 after an article in an Israeli business newspaper (see TechStock Radar—Sept. 14) stated that the company was in talks to be bought by either IBM or HP.

So far, nothing. Since hitting a high of $40.17 on September 15, Radware shares have dropped 20%.

At its Analyst Day yesterday, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, $41.62) raised fiscal 2011 (October) guidance. The company now sees EPS of $5.05 to $5.15 (the consensus is $4.99) on revenue of $131.5 billion to $133.5 billion (the consensus is $131.4 billion).

This morning, Kaufman ups its price target by two bucks to $53, saying HP’s enterprise hardware business offers the most-promising growth, driven by storage and networking.

Shares of TriQuint Semiconductor (TQNT, $9.45) hit a new 52-week high today on active volume.

The stock is now up 35% since the end of August and has gained 57% YTD.

In Q2, tech-focused Empire Capital Management ($795 million in long equity assets) opened a position of 4.5 million shares and is now among TriQuint’s 10 largest investors. Empire now lists TriQuint among its top 10 holdings. Other top tech positions at Empire: Aruba Networks, Apple, Cisco Systems, Acme Packet, Equinix and EMC.

Another big buyer in Q2 was Citadel Advisors, which added 2.02 million shares and now owns 2.18 million shares. Fidelity bought 1.7 million shares and Ameriprise Financial (Seligman) picked up 809,998 shares.

Since it closed above $100 for the first time on September 16, F5 Networks (FFIV, $101.33) shares have attracted buyers on dips below the century mark, indicating traders have been accumulating the stock on any weakness.

That's obviously a positive. But with F5 up 24% since the August 12 low of $81.50, there’s a lot of good news now priced in ahead of the fiscal Q4 earnings report on October 26.

On the charts, the RSI is indicating a negative divergence, which is something to watch as F5 consolidates its recent gains.  A pullback to the 50-day moving average around $91 would not be surprising.

Avian ups its Acme Packet (APKT, $39.39) price target to $45, saying channel checks reaffirm market acceleration in both the enterprise and carrier segments.

“Enterprise CIOs are looking to reduce overall costs and deploying SBCs in the datacenter is driving operators to deploy more IP interconnections, creating a virtuous cycle,” says analyst Catharine Trebnick.

She says there is still room for growth on the carrier side, with checks indicating RFP activity is up for LTE IMS opportunities (T-Mobile International, Orange, Telefonica) and VoIP build-outs in India.

Of note, Trebnick says Acme Packet is getting traction with its SLBs, replacing F5 load balancers on Acme Packet installed SBCs. This provides an opportunity to up-sell SLBs within the Net-Net 4500 installed base, which would support margin expansion.

For 2011, Avian sees EPS of $1.02 (previous estimate was 97 cents) on revenue of $304.6 million (previous estimate was $300 million). The firm’s new 2012 estimates: EPS of $1.29 on revenue of $409.7 million.

Acme Packet (APKT, $39.93) moves to a new 52-week high today on active volume.

During the past couple of weeks, buyers stepped in whenever the stock dipped below $36, which indicates Acme Packet has been under accumulation.

Acme Packet shares ended 2009 at $11 a share, so the stock is up 263% YTD.

Some air is coming out of the storage sector after the recent rally.

NetApp (NTAP, $49.20) shares are off 2% following the removal of the stock from JP Morgan’s Focus List.

Isilon Systems (ISLN, $22.62) is down 7.5% on heavy volume and Compellent Technologies (CML, $18.69) has dropped 3.6%.

Shares of Mellanox Technologies (MLNX, $19.54) are holding steady this morning after jumping 7.8% on heavy volume on Friday.

Speculators moved into the stock after Oracle CEO Larry Ellison said he was interested in purchasing semiconductor companies in order to control more of the IP in Oracle products.

Mellanox’s datacenter chips support InfiniBand technology, which is used in Oracle’s new Exalogic cloud-computing box.

Mellanox would be an easy acquisition for Oracle as its market cap is just $658 million.

TSP Deal Report  | 6 Tech Takeover Plays

TSP Deal Report is a special research service of TechStockProspector.com

TSP Deal Report is an actively managed list of likely takeover candidates among publicly traded technology companies.

Rob DeFrancesco, editor of TechStockProspector.com, conducts extensive research and channel checks to analyze and predict M&A activity in the tech sector.

Rob last week added a new name to the TSP Deal Report Target List, replacing ArcSight, which has agreed to be taken over by HP for $43.50 a share. ArcSight was added to the TSP Deal Report Target List on July 29, 2010 at $25.64. That’s a total return of 69.6% in seven weeks.

The Target List was updated on October 14, 2009 after previous list member Starent Networks received a $2.9-billion buyout offer from Cisco Systems. That deal valued Starent at $35 a share, a 31.5% premium to the price it was trading at when it was added to the TSP Deal Report Target List just eight days prior.

Since its launch in 2003, Tech-Stock Prospector has seen several of its recommended companies get bought out by competitors or private-equity firms, often at substantial premiums. Here is a partial list:

Omniture--acquired by Adobe Systems

NAVTEQ--acquired by Nokia

SafeNet--acquired by private equity

RSA Security--acquired by EMC

IDX Systems--acquired by General Electric

Sungard Data Systems--acquired by private equity

VERITAS--acquired by Symantec

In the middle of May, SAP agreed to acquire Sybase for $65 a share in a deal worth $5.8 billion. Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers were first alerted to Sybase in June 2008 because of the company’s growth potential in mobile middleware and its expanded international presence. The stock was trading around $32 at the time.

In addition, Data Domain was on the TSP Watch List in May 2009 when it received a $25-a-share buyout offer (a 40% premium) from NetApp. Rob covered the ensuing three-month battle between EMC and NetApp for Data Domain, correctly predicting in early June 2009 that EMC would raise its offer. EMC ultimately purchased Data Domain for $33.50 a share.

In June 2009, Rob called 3PAR “a potential takeover target” in the storage sector when the stock was trading around $11.25. He said Dell could put some of its big cash stake to good use by making a play for 3PAR. This summer, Dell and Hewlett-Packard were locked in a fierce bidding war for 3PAR. HP’s winning bid of $33 a share represents a 193% premium from June 2009.

TSP Deal Report is available as a standalone product or as part of a subscription e-mail service that includes updates on Target List companies as well as new additions/deletions.

For information on pricing and payment options, please e-mail David at TSPDealReport@gmail.com.

Amazon.com (AMZN, $160.04) is up more than 4% today on heavy volume of 5.4 million shares after JP Morgan boosts its price target to $198 from $154, citing market-share gains within the expanding e-commerce segment.

The firm raises its 2011 EPS estimate to $3.64 from $3.40. The consensus estimate is $3.54.

Amazon shares have jumped 35% since the end of July.

Google (GOOG, $518.46) continues to rally and is now approaching its 200-day moving average at $523.86.

Traders will be watching to see if Google can close above this level.

After that, there’s short-term resistance around $538 to $539, with more substantial resistance in the $589 to $598 range.

Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, $20.14) hit a new 52-week high today at $20.65 on heavy volume of 4.1 million shares.

Morgan Stanley yesterday upped its Skyworks price target to $24 following the company’s guidance boost.

For more on Skyworks, see TechStock Radar—September 14, 2010.

Shares of Equinix (EQIX, $100.66), a provider of collocation services, have worked their way back to $100 after dipping below $78 in early July.

The stock traded down from around $107 in May on concerns about weakness in European economies.

Benchmark gets props for defending Equinix during the pullback, saying in June that demand remained strong because of infrastructure cost savings.

Piper Jaffray has a price target of $124 based on some positive demand trends in Europe, especially in the retail-services segment.

Piper Jaffray ups its Apple (AAPL, $287.75) iPad sales projection for next year to 21 million units from 14.5 million units.

The firm says Apple has finally caught up to demand and is shipping units within 24 hours. On the distribution side, the iPad will be in more than 1,000 Best Buy stores by the end of this month. And Piper Jaffray expects Target to soon begin selling the tablets.

Other positives: Piper Jaffray looks for an uptick in enterprise sales and a move into smaller international markets where the iPad will be used as a primary computing device.

The firm boosts its Apple price target to $390 from $370.

Dell (DELL, $12.38) has been sitting on the M&A sidelines since it lost out on 3PAR to HP. But the company needs to stay in the game. Deals are being made in the tech world as Dell management dilly-dallies.

There was a rumor today that IBM might be interested in Brocade (BRCD, $6.26), which closed up 10.8% on heavy volume of 71 million shares. But it would make more sense for Dell to make a move on Brocade.

Who else should Dell be looking at? All the usual suspects: Isilon Systems (ISLN), Compellent Technologies (CML), CommVault Systems (CVLT) and Teradata (TDC). Even Netezza (NZ) should be an option because IBM’s bid of $27 a share looks low.

Shares of Brocade Communications (BRCD, $6.14) are up 8% on heavy volume of 17 million shares as takeover chatter once again heats up on this networking/storage name.

IBM is said to be the interested buyer this time. Brocade has been a rumored target in the past.

With IBM just coming off its bid for Netezza, the odds that it would make another acquisition so quickly are low. Perhaps Dell could be a Brocade buyer.

Adobe Systems (ADBE, $26.14 pre market) shares are down 20% in pre-market trading after the company reported disappointing fiscal Q3 sales of Creative Suite 5 and issued weak guidance for fiscal Q4.

For the November quarter, Adobe sees EPS of 48 cents to 54 cents (the consensus is 53 cents) on revenue of $950 million to $1 billion, vs. the consensus of $1.03 billion.

Several brokerages this morning have downgraded the stock. A little late, of course. ISI Group cut its Adobe price target to $30 from $43, saying Creative Solutions revenue rose only 3% sequentially to $550 million, below the consensus of $564 million. The firm says weakness in Japan and the educational vertical should continue into the February quarter.

OpCo thinks the shares will be range-bound between the mid-$20s and low-$30s as consensus estimates come in. Baird lowered its target to $36 from $44.

TSP Deal Report  | 6 Tech Takeover Plays

TSP Deal Report is a special research service of TechStockProspector.com

TSP Deal Report is an actively managed list of likely takeover candidates among publicly traded technology companies.

Rob DeFrancesco, editor of TechStockProspector.com, conducts extensive research and channel checks to analyze and predict M&A activity in the tech sector.

Rob last week added a new name to the TSP Deal Report Target List, replacing ArcSight, which has agreed to be taken over by HP for $43.50 a share. ArcSight was added to the TSP Deal Report Target List on July 29, 2010 at $25.64. That’s a total return of 69.6% in seven weeks.

The Target List was updated on October 14, 2009 after previous list member Starent Networks received a $2.9-billion buyout offer from Cisco Systems. That deal valued Starent at $35 a share, a 31.5% premium to the price it was trading at when it was added to the TSP Deal Report Target List just eight days prior.

Since its launch in 2003, Tech-Stock Prospector has seen several of its recommended companies get bought out by competitors or private-equity firms, often at substantial premiums. Here is a partial list:

Omniture--acquired by Adobe Systems

NAVTEQ--acquired by Nokia

SafeNet--acquired by private equity

RSA Security--acquired by EMC

IDX Systems--acquired by General Electric

Sungard Data Systems--acquired by private equity

VERITAS--acquired by Symantec

In the middle of May, SAP agreed to acquire Sybase for $65 a share in a deal worth $5.8 billion. Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers were first alerted to Sybase in June 2008 because of the company’s growth potential in mobile middleware and its expanded international presence. The stock was trading around $32 at the time.

In addition, Data Domain was on the TSP Watch List in May 2009 when it received a $25-a-share buyout offer (a 40% premium) from NetApp. Rob covered the ensuing three-month battle between EMC and NetApp for Data Domain, correctly predicting in early June 2009 that EMC would raise its offer. EMC ultimately purchased Data Domain for $33.50 a share.

In June 2009, Rob called 3PAR “a potential takeover target” in the storage sector when the stock was trading around $11.25. He said Dell could put some of its big cash stake to good use by making a play for 3PAR. This summer, Dell and Hewlett-Packard were locked in a fierce bidding war for 3PAR. HP’s winning bid of $33 a share represents a 193% premium from June 2009.

TSP Deal Report is available as a standalone product or as part of a subscription e-mail service that includes updates on Target List companies as well as new additions/deletions.

For information on pricing and payment options, please e-mail David at TSPDealReport@gmail.com.

Shares of Taleo (TLEO, $29.67), a provider of on-demand talent-management solutions, went to a new 52-week high today on active volume. So far this year, the stock is up 26%.

Shares of competitor SuccessFactors (SFSF, $25.40), up 53% YTD, also hit a new high today at $26.30.

SuccessFactors sports a market cap of $1.87 billion, more than 9X the 2010 revenue estimate. Taleo’s forward price-to-sales ratio is 5.1.

Apple (AAPL, $284.12) shares today hit a new 52-week high at $284.91 on active volume.

Citing strong iPad demand and the iPhone 4 upgrade cycle, Barclays says Apple’s valuation remains attractive. The firm has a price target of $340.

Apple trades at 16 times the fiscal 2011 (September) consensus EPS estimate of $17.58, below the expected growth rate of 21.7%. The high estimate for next year is all the way up at $21.36.

Speculators are hoping Netezza (NZ, $28.20) snags a higher bid than IBM’s offer of $27 a share.

But even if a new buyer emerges the premium would not have to be big because we know IBM is not going to get into a bidding war.

I say the odds are high that this IBM-for-Netezza deal gets done at the current offer price.

TSP Deal Report  | 6 Tech Takeover Plays

TSP Deal Report is a special research service of TechStockProspector.com

TSP Deal Report is an actively managed list of likely takeover candidates among publicly traded technology companies.

Rob DeFrancesco, editor of TechStockProspector.com, conducts extensive research and channel checks to analyze and predict M&A activity in the tech sector.

Rob last week added a new name to the TSP Deal Report Target List, replacing ArcSight, which has agreed to be taken over by HP for $43.50 a share. ArcSight was added to the TSP Deal Report Target List on July 29, 2010 at $25.64. That’s a total return of 69.6% in seven weeks.

The Target List was updated on October 14, 2009 after previous list member Starent Networks received a $2.9-billion buyout offer from Cisco Systems. That deal valued Starent at $35 a share, a 31.5% premium to the price it was trading at when it was added to the TSP Deal Report Target List just eight days prior.

Since its launch in 2003, Tech-Stock Prospector has seen several of its recommended companies get bought out by competitors or private-equity firms, often at substantial premiums. Here is a partial list:

Omniture--acquired by Adobe Systems

NAVTEQ--acquired by Nokia

SafeNet--acquired by private equity

RSA Security--acquired by EMC

IDX Systems--acquired by General Electric

Sungard Data Systems--acquired by private equity

VERITAS--acquired by Symantec

In the middle of May, SAP agreed to acquire Sybase for $65 a share in a deal worth $5.8 billion. Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers were first alerted to Sybase in June 2008 because of the company’s growth potential in mobile middleware and its expanded international presence. The stock was trading around $32 at the time.

In addition, Data Domain was on the TSP Watch List in May 2009 when it received a $25-a-share buyout offer (a 40% premium) from NetApp. Rob covered the ensuing three-month battle between EMC and NetApp for Data Domain, correctly predicting in early June 2009 that EMC would raise its offer. EMC ultimately purchased Data Domain for $33.50 a share.

In June 2009, Rob called 3PAR “a potential takeover target” in the storage sector when the stock was trading around $11.25. He said Dell could put some of its big cash stake to good use by making a play for 3PAR. This summer, Dell and Hewlett-Packard were locked in a fierce bidding war for 3PAR. HP’s winning bid of $33 a share represents a 193% premium from June 2009.

TSP Deal Report is available as a standalone product or as part of a subscription e-mail service that includes updates on Target List companies as well as new additions/deletions.

For information on pricing and payment options, please e-mail David at TSPDealReport@gmail.com.

Google (GOOG, $507.72) shares are up more than 3% on active volume.

The stock is once again approaching its June high of $509.25. It stalled in August at $508.60.

If Google can clear the June high on a closing basis, traders will be watching for a push to the 200-day moving average at $525.25.

Kaufman boosts its Apple (AAPL, $277.66) price target to $374 from $350 based on positive sales trends for the iPad and the iPhone.

The firm also says Apple is having a strong Mac quarter, with limited cannibalization at the low end of the MacBook line and solid sales of the MacBook Pro. Improved iMacs introduced in late July are helping the mix as well.

Meanwhile, there is more chatter that Apple will unveil a 7-inch screen iPad with FaceTime early next year.

IBM will acquire Netezza (NZ, $27.75 pre market) for $27 a share in cash in a deal worth around $1.7 billion (adjusted for cash).

Netezza, a provider of data warehouse and analytics appliances, saw its shares jump sharply after reporting strong Q2 results at the end of August. The stock continued to gain ground earlier this month on takeover speculation. Netezza traded below $15 as recently as August 26.

The company has more than 350 clients across a variety of industries. Netezza’s appliances, which can be up and running in a matter of hours, handle complex analytic queries 10 to 100 times faster than traditional systems.

The deal is expected to close in Q4. But there is some speculation that a higher bid could come in—the stock is trading above the $27 offer price.

For more on Netezza, see TechStock Radar—August 27 and September 8.

Shares of storage vendor Isilon Systems (ISLN, $25.04) hit a new 52-week high this morning on active volume. The stock continues to be bid up on takeover chatter.

ThinkEquity says the company is benefiting from a combination of strong file storage market growth and superior scale-out product architecture.

The firm, which boosts its price target to $28, thinks Isilon’s superior technological advantage makes it an attractive takeover candidate.

But Isilon would most likely go for much more than $28 a share in any buyout.

Netflix (NFLX, $141.25) shares hit a new high of $149.95 on Monday and then proceeded to decline for three sessions in a row.

The RSI is showing a minor negative divergence, indicting a pullback might be on the way. There’s support at the 50-day moving average at $124.25.

The Wall Street Journal this week said Netflix most likely faces a big increase in the annual licensing fee its pays Starz (content from Sony and Walt Disney) when that contract comes up for renewal next year.

This is an important deal: Morgan Keegan estimates that Starz represents half of the 30 most popular streaming titles on Netflix. That’s not content Netflix would want to lose.

UBS lifts its Oracle (ORCL, $25.36) price target by a buck to $32 after the company delivered strong fiscal Q1 results, with new license revenue growth of 25%, more than double the high end of the guidance range of 2% to 12%.

The firm says Exadata, which generates both hardware and software revenue, was a key driver behind the strength in the database & middleware segments.

UBS raises its fiscal 2011 (May) EPS estimate to $1.95 from $1.87. The consensus currently stands at $1.90, but this should be on the rise as analysts up their estimates over the coming week.

Oracle (ORCL, $26.55 after hours) shares are up more than 4% in after-hours trading following a strong fiscal Q1 report.

Per-share earnings of 42 cents came in five cents above the consensus estimate on revenue of $7.59 billion, above the consensus of $7.27 billion. New software license revenue rose an impressive 25% to $1.3 billion.  Sun’s hardware systems revenue of $1.1 billion came in above expectations despite the fact the Oracle cut back on numerous unprofitable reseller agreements.

For fiscal Q2, Oracle sees EPS of 45 cents to 47 cents (the consensus is 45 cents) on revenue of $8.4 billion to $8.64 billion, vs. the consensus of $8.21 billion.

Oracle (ORCL, $25.29) reports fiscal Q1 (August) results after the close. The consensus estimates: EPS of 37 cents on revenue of $7.27 billion.

The focus will be on new software license growth, which could come in above the high end of the guidance range of 2% to 12%.

New co-president Mark Hurd is expected to be on the call.

Merriman thinks OpenTable (OPEN, $65.26) could be worth $80 to $90 a share by the middle of next year. The company, a provider of online/mobile restaurant reservations, dominates the U.S. market with an estimated 90% share.

The firm is bullish on OpenTable’s $55-million purchase of Toptable.com in the UK, saying the deal has the potential to double the company’s addressable market. Toptable.com’s network is made up of 3,000+ UK restaurants and more than 2,000 across Europe, vs. OpenTable’s presence of 860 restaurants in the UK and 596 in Germany.

Merriman says OpenTable’s new Spotlight weekly restaurant deal (a Groupon competitor) could add $250 million to $500 million in addressable revenue.

OpenTable shares ended 2009 at $25.46, representing a YTD gain of 156%. The company sports a market cap of $1.5 billion, vs. 2010 estimated revenue of $91 million.

Benchmark ups its Amazon.com (AMZN, $146.11) price target to $165 from $148 based on expectations of 20% growth across revenue and earnings for 2011.

The firm sees 2010 EPS of $2.70 (the consensus is $2.62) and 2011 EPS of $3.30 (the consensus is $3.54).

Benchmark says the valuation is attractive at these levels given Amazon’s strong growth profile in the e-commerce market.

ISI Group lifts its VMware (VMW, $85.75) price target to $100 from $85 based on positive trends in server virtualization and the company’s strong position in the segment.

Field checks indicate licensing agreement renewal opportunities for 2H10 represent the largest in VMware’s history, according to the firm.

ISI estimates server virtualization is only 30% penetrated at the enterprise, with the ability to get to 70% across the installed base.

Shares of storage vendor NetApp (NTAP, $49.30) have jumped 31% from the August low of $37.58. The stock today hit a new 52-week high of $49.56.

NetApp now sports a market cap of $17.5 billion.  While the company is often mentioned as a potential takeover target, this would represent a mega deal for any acquirer, especially when the required deal premium gets added in.

The fiscal 2011 (April) revenue estimate is $4.9 billion.

Benchmark lifts its Terremark Worldwide (TMRK, $9.72) price target to $11 from $9 based on positive demand trends in the collocation market.

Terremark provides collocation and managed services to roughly 1,300 customers worldwide. About 90% of the company’s revenue is from recurring contracts. For fiscal 2011 (March), Terremark sees revenue of $345 million to $350 million. Benchmark estimates FY2012 revenue at $415 million.

The firm says Terremarks’ Virginia campus is about 75% contracted thanks to federal datacenter consolidation and increased outsourcing of IP infrastructure.

Oracle (ORCL, $25.38) reports fiscal Q1 (August) results after the close tomorrow. Morgan Stanley says channel checks indicate the company had a strong quarter in business intelligence, edge applications and middleware.

Oracle should also benefit from the fact that it had three times the normal level of license backlog going into the quarter, says the firm.

Morgan Stanley thinks the stock is undervalued and has a price target of $31.

Shares of Radware (RDWR, $37.85) have surged 35% on heavy volume following a report in The Globes that the company, a provider of application delivery and network security solutions, was in talks to be acquired by either IBM or HP.

The Israeli newspaper says the expected value of the deal is around $945 million, or $45 a share.

I’m not sure how reliable The Globes is when it comes to takeover rumors. Maybe IBM is in the game, but the idea that HP would quickly spend another $1 billion on an acquisition seems far-fetched.

Shares of wireless chipmaker Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, $19.23) are close to a new 52-week high.

The stock has rebounded nicely from its August low of $16.86 and is now firmly above the 50-day moving average of $17.85. The RSI is rising from 62.2.

In Q2, Maverick Capital ($8.7 billion in long equity assets/33.6% tech weighting) opened a position of 12.95 million shares to become the #3 investor in Skyworks behind Fidelity (26.5 million shares) and Wellington (20 million shares).

Skyworks is now among Maverick’s 15 largest holdings. The firm’s other top tech positions: Qualcomm, Marvell Technology, Apple, Citrix Systems, Expedia and Adobe Systems.

According to AppleInsider.com, Apple (AAPL, $266.48) is on track to sell a record 3.8 million Macs in the September quarter, which would be a 23% increase from the year-ago period.

The website says NPD Group data suggests Apple should be able to top the consensus estimate of 3.7 million units.

Apple sold a record 3.47 million Macs in the June quarter.

Stifel Nicolaus lifts its Infinera (INFN, $10.47) price target to  $12 from $10 after upbeat meetings with management.

The firm reports demand for Infinera’s optical equipment remains strong from cable operators (Comcast, Cox and TWC) and Internet content providers (including Google).

Stifel Nicolaus says some cable operators are using Infinera gear for wireless backhaul, which represents significant growth potential.

For more on Infinera, see TechStock Radar—September 9, 2010.

In Q2, some big institutional investors piled into shares of networking-security vendor Fortinet (FTNT, $22.18), which is up 3.1% today on heavy volume following news of the ArcSight deal.

Fortinet shares have rallied 29.5% from their August 11 low of $17.12. The company, which now sports a market cap of $1.58 billion, has $309 million in cash & investments (with no debt) on the balance sheet, or about $4.35 a share.

Fidelity in the June quarter upped its Fortinet position by 65% with the purchase of 2.78 million shares. The mutual-fund giant, the #1 holder of ArcSight (5.09 million shares), is also the top investor in Fortinet, holding 7.08 million shares.

T. Rowe Price bumped up its Fortinet stake by 80%, purchasing 1.09 million shares. The firm, the #1 investor in networking-security vendor Sourcefire (FIRE, $27.39), is now the #2 investor in Fortinet, holding 2.46 million shares.

TCW Group opened a position in Fortinet of 2.05 million shares to become the #3 holder.

According to Stifel, there is a high probability that Sourcefire (FIRE, $28.89 pre market) will have a beat-&-raise Q3 as channel checks and recent management meetings suggest the company is having a strong quarter.

Stifel says the fundamental outlook in the security sector is positive and that there is upside to 2011 estimates.

With a market cap of $733 million, Sourcefire trades at 5.4 times the 2010 revenue estimate of $135.2 million and 4.5 times the 2011 estimate of $163.1 million. HP is taking over competitor ArcSight at 6.6 times estimated FY2011 (April) revenue.

Sourcefire has no debt and cash/investments of $142.6 million, or about $5.19 a share.

With the ArcSight deal in the bag, speculators are now looking to other vendors in the networking-security space.

In pre-market trading, Fortinet (FTNT, $22.50) is up 4.6% and Sourcefire (FIRE, $28.89) has jumped 9.1%.

Hewlett-Packard will purchase networking-security vendor ArcSight (ARST, $35.10) for $43.50 a share in cash. The deal, worth about $1.5 billion, is expected to close by the end of the year.

HP says with this transaction it intends to become a leader in enterprise security.  There are no more “smash-&-grab threats” as attacks have gotten much more sophisticated. The company says security must be designed into systems up front and not layered on.

ArcSight has been listed on the TSP Deal Report Target List since the end of July when the stock was trading at around $25.60.

Hewlett-Packard will purchase networking-security vendor ArcSight (ARST, $35.10) for $43.50 a share in cash. The deal, worth about $1.5 billion, is expected to close by the end of the year.

HP says with this transaction it intends to become a leader in enterprise security.  There are no more “smash-&-grab threats” as attacks have gotten much more sophisticated. The company says security must be designed into systems up front and not layered on.

ArcSight has been listed on the TSP Deal Report Target List since the end of July when the stock was trading at around $25.60.

FBR Capital ups its Riverbed Technology (RVBD, $40.92) price target to $46 from $37 based on positive Q3 channel checks in WAN optimization.

The firm says Riverbed is experiencing healthy linearity trends across its geographies going into the last few weeks of the quarter.

FBR sees improving deal-close rates and a growing pipeline setting the stage for a solid Q4.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that Hewlett-Packard is close to buying networking-security company ArcSight (ARST, $35.10) for around $1.5 billion. The deal could be announced as soon as tomorrow.

As of Friday’s close, ArcSight’s market cap was $1.21 billion.  The company has no debt and cash/investments of $150.7 million. For fiscal 2011 (April), ArcSight is expected to come in with revenue of $226.1 million.

According to the article, ArcSight management had been seeking $42 a share.

TSP Deal Report  | 6 Tech Takeover Plays

TSP Deal Report is a special research service of TechStockProspector.com

TSP Deal Report is an actively managed list of likely takeover candidates among publicly traded technology companies.

Rob DeFrancesco, editor of TechStockProspector.com, conducts extensive research and channel checks to analyze and predict M&A activity in the tech sector.

Rob just completed a brand new TSP Deal Report Target List. Prior to this, it was last updated on October 14, 2009, after previous list member Starent Networks received a $2.9-billion buyout offer from Cisco Systems. That deal valued Starent at $35 a share, a 31.5% premium to the price it was trading at when it was added to the TSP Deal Report Target List just eight days prior.

Since its launch in 2003, Tech-Stock Prospector has seen several of its recommended companies get bought out by competitors or private-equity firms, often at substantial premiums. Here is a partial list:

Omniture--acquired by Adobe Systems

NAVTEQ--acquired by Nokia

SafeNet--acquired by private equity

RSA Security--acquired by EMC

IDX Systems--acquired by General Electric

Sungard Data Systems--acquired by private equity

VERITAS--acquired by Symantec

In the middle of May, SAP agreed to acquire Sybase for $65 a share in a deal worth $5.8 billion. Tech-Stock Prospector subscribers were first alerted to Sybase in June 2008 because of the company’s growth potential in mobile middleware and its expanded international presence. The stock was trading around $32 at the time.

In addition, Data Domain was on the TSP Watch List in May 2009 when it received a $25-a-share buyout offer (a 40% premium) from NetApp. Rob covered the ensuing three-month battle between EMC and NetApp for Data Domain, correctly predicting in early June 2009 that EMC would raise its offer. EMC ultimately purchased Data Domain for $33.50 a share.

In June 2009, Rob called 3PAR “a potential takeover target” in the storage sector when the stock was trading around $11.25. He said Dell could put some of its big cash stake to good use by making a play for 3PAR. This summer, Dell and Hewlett-Packard were locked in a fierce bidding war for 3PAR. HP’s winning bid of $33 a share represents a 193% premium from June 2009.

TSP Deal Report is available as a standalone product or as part of a subscription e-mail service (6 or 12 months) that includes updates on Target List companies as well as new additions/deletions.

For information on pricing and payment options, please e-mail David at TSPDealReport@gmail.com.

UBS lifts its Red Hat (RHT, $37.25) price target to $44 from $35 on accelerated billings and strong shipments. The firm says Red Hat is a smart way to play the expected server rebound.

The company reports results for the August quarter on September 22. The consensus estimates: EPS of 18 cents (the high estimate is 20 cents) on revenue of $211.2 million (the high estimate is $215.3 million).

UBS also says Red Hat remains a top takeover candidate. It has been a rumored target for years.

It’s difficult to find a bull on Research in Motion (RIMM, $45.02) these days, but Caris is still upbeat. Just since the end of May, the stock has dropped from $60.69 on fears about increased competition.

The firm says RIM should report results for the August quarter (on September 16) that are at the high end of guidance (EPS of $1.33 to $1.40 on revenue of $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion) in part because of better-than-expected demand for the Torch at AT&T.

Caris thinks guidance for the November quarter will be supported by the upcoming European launch.

The firm also points out that there are is plenty of legacy share to be had in the handset business as consumers switch over to smartphones. Caris argues RIM, Apple and Android can all survive and grow as this share gets transferred to these three platforms.

Caris does reduce its PT to $70 from $83.

Infinera (INFN, $10.06) shares today hit a new 52-week high at $10.15 on heavy volume of 1.44 million shares following an upgrade from Soleil to ‘Buy’ with a PT of $12.50.

The stock is up 56% since the end of June.

The firm calls Infinera its “favorite vehicle for investment exposure to the optical market.” Soleil says the company is gaining share in the North American WDM market against traditional vendors such as Ciena and Alcatel.

Infinera recently accelerated the planned rollout of its 100G optical system to 2012, 18 months ahead of the previous product roadmap.

The 2011 consensus EPS estimate now stands at 42 cents, up from nine cents just 60 days ago. Revenue is expected to top $545 million next year, up from an estimated $465.9 million this year.

For more on Infinera, see TechStock Radar—July 23, 2010.

Apple (AAPL, $266.18) has moved back to the top of its recent range, taking out short-term resistance at $265.99. Traders will be watching for a close above this level.

The stock has rebounded nearly 30 points from its August low of $237.41.

Shares of ArcSight (ARST, $34.90) fell sharply yesterday afternoon on a report that the company has not been able to find a buyer. The stock finished the session down 7.4%.

ArcSight shares jumped 30% on August 26 after The Wall Street Journal reported that the company had put itself up for sale.

The stock has been trading on buyout speculation since then, hitting a high of $39.74 on August 27. Management has remained mum, saying it would not comment on rumors.

Given ArcSight’s growth profile in the networking-security sector, I can’t imagine it does not have interested parties. The sticking point is most likely valuation. The 3PAR bidding war has raised the bar for tech M&A.

For more on ArcSight, see TechStock Radar—September 3, 2010.

Symantec (SYMC, $14.84) shares are up 6% on chatter that Microsoft could be interested in buying the company. Volume is heavy at more than 26.5 million shares, well above average daily volume of 17 million shares.

We’ve heard this Microsoft-for-Symantec rumor in the past, with nothing ever coming of it. I’m dubious. But something has to be done at Symantec to get the company back on the growth track.

This Symantec management team has lost focus, especially when it comes to the acquisition strategy. The company is looking at flat revenue growth this fiscal year (ending March) and just 6% growth next year.

Netezza (NZ, $23.33) shares are up 9.3% on heavy volume of 2.75 million shares, nearly double average daily volume.

The company has been the subject of takeover speculation in the storage sector.  OpCo yesterday said IBM or Dell could be potential buyers.

For more, see TechStock Radar—August 27, 2010.

Marvell Technology (MRVL, $17.14) shares have bounced off the recent low of $14.09 and accelerated their move off the 50-day moving average at $15.99.

The stock is approaching short-term resistance at $17.90 from the middle of July.

The 200-day moving average stands at $18.60.  A close above this level would be a positive sign. The RSI is neutral at 61.9.

Deutsche Bank ups its Citrix Systems (CTXS, $61.66) price target to $72 from $65 on greater conviction regarding virtual desktop adoption and the company’s growth profile in the space.

DB said extensive conversations last week at VMworld with VMware and Citrix reps, partners and customers revealed desktop virtualization is gaining momentum.

With the battle for 3PAR out of the way, OpCo gives us a list of potential M&A maneuvers among publicly traded companies in the storage sector:

Dell-->Brocade (BRCD), Compellent (CML), CommVault (CVLT), Teradata (TDC) or Netezza (NZ)

EMC-->Isilon Systems

IBM-->FalconStor (FALC) or Netezza (NZ)

Oracle (ORCL, $24.57 pre market) shares are getting a 7% boost in the premarket on the announcement that former HP CEO Mark Hurd is joining the company as co-president, replacing Charles Phillips.

This is a big win for Oracle. Hurd has a lot of experience running a much larger organization.  HP’s fiscal 2009 revenue was $114.5 billion, while Oracle’s fiscal 2010 (May) revenue topped $27 billion.  

Hurd also brings with him an extensive knowledge of the hardware side of the business. With Sun already in the fold, Oracle CEO Larry Ellison said the company plans to purchase more hardware companies, so Hurd’s hiring was a strategic move from that perspective. This means Oracle plans to become a much larger competitive force against HP and IBM.

This also sets up a nice possible succession plan for Ellison, who is 66 years old. Hurd is 54.

Compellent Technologies (CML, $18.56) rose 4.2% today on heavy volume of 2.85 million shares (3.8X average daily volume) as speculators positioned themselves for more potential M&A activity in the storage sector.

Compellent jumped 18.5% yesterday on 3.2 million shares after Dell bailed out of the 3PAR bidding war. Traders think Dell could now make a run at Compellent, which has a market cap of just $590 million even after all of these recent gains. The company has $132 million in cash & investments on the balance sheet.

For 2010, Compellent is expected to come in with revenue of around $149 million, with the consensus for 2011 showing growth of 22% to $182.2 million.

Compellent has struggled with Wall Street expectations in the past, with the stock falling 25% in one day in April and 24% during another session in February. Compellent shares traded as high as $24.95 in January.

VMware (VMW, $84.49) trades to a new 52-week high today as the big VMworld 2010 lovefest comes to a close.

More than 17,000 attendees flocked to SF this week to get all hopped up on virtualization.

VMware now sports a market cap of close to $35 billion. EMC bought the company in January 2004 for just $625 million and is still the majority owner.

I’d love to see Cisco Systems make a bid for EMC to get at VMware. And I’d also love to see Larry Ellison start a bidding war. Now THAT would be some fun in the tech world.

On the ArcSight (ARST, $37.84) fiscal Q1 call last night, CEO Tom Reilly said he would not address any rumors or speculation regarding the company’s potential sale.

The Wall Street Journal last week said the company had put itself up for sale, which resulted in a 30% one-day spike in the share price. (For more, see TechStock Radar—August 26, 2010).

ArcSight, a provider of network-security software and appliances, reported excellent numbers for the July quarter, with revenue up 37% to $48.1 million, above the consensus of $45.5 million. Per-share earnings of 18 cents topped the consensus by five cents.

The company added 75 new customers and they accounted for 33% of product revenue. International revenue (representing 19% of total revenue) jumped 61%, propelled by 56% growth in EMEA, the best quarter ever for that region. ArcSight now has 100 channel partners across Europe.

The top verticals for the quarter: financial (34% of revenue), government (27%) and retailers (10%). There was one 10% customer, a government account. There were four deals in the quarter worth more than $1 million each.

ArcSight ended July with cash & investments of $150.7 million.

For fiscal Q2, the company sees EPS of 19 cents to 20 cents (the consensus is 17 cents) on revenue of $55 million to $57 million, vs. the consensus of $52.6 million.

Shares of storage-software vendor CommVault Systems (CVLT, $26.61) are on the rise again on renewed chatter that Dell might be interested in the company now that the 3PAR bid is history.

CommVault is up 7.2% on heavy volume of around 1 million shares. The stock rose 32.5% in August thanks mainly to acquisition rumors.

Dell has been a rumored buyer of CommVault for more than a year. Of course, CommVault was a lot cheaper back then—it now sports a market cap of $1.15 billion.

Dell is done. The bidding war for 3PAR (PAR, $32.78) is over.

HP wins the prize at $33 a share, 83% above Dell's original offer of $18. Now HP faces the deal hangover and the reality of making this pricey acquisition work. Good luck with that.

Dell will take its $72-million break-up fee and go home, or onto the next target.

Hewlett-Packard ups its bid for 3PAR (PAR, $33.60) to $33 a share in cash after Dell raised its bid to $32.

Dell is getting desperate in its offer demands. It should just give up now as it’s starting to look pathetic. As part of its latest bid, Dell increased the termination fee to $92 million and included a multi-year reseller agreement, which would be assumed by any acquirer (including HP). That’s ridiculous.

Dell must just be messing with HP now. The market senses this is basically over as PAR shares are trading just 60 cents above HP’s bid.

Blue Coat Systems (BCSI, $21.05) shares are up nearly 12% today on heavy volume of 2 million shares following the announcement of a new CEO and a Needham upgrade.

New CEO Michael Borman is a skilled former-IBMer who last year as CEO of Avocent engineered the sale of that company to Emerson Electric for $1.2 billion.

Needham applauds Blue Coat for making changes at the top after recent stumbles in Europe. The firm set a price target of $27.

For more on Blue Coat, see TechStock Radar—August 30, 2010.

RightNow Technologies (RNOW, $17.27) has broken out to the upside, pushing through recent resistance just above $17.

The RSI is rising from 65.1.

Next up, traders will be watching resistance from late April in the $19 to $19.15 range.

Isilon Systems (ISLN, $20.75) hit a new 52-week high at the open. The stock rose 13.7% in August on takeover speculation.

Two other smaller storage players also had a good August:

*CommVault Systems (CVLT, $24.86) +32.5%

*Compellent Technologies (CML, $15.68) +13.9%