BofA/Merrill downgrades Electronic Arts (EA, $114.60) and reduces its price target to $126 from $159, saying yesterday’s guidance cut highlights the risks of a back-end loaded year, a crowded holiday title slate and continued Fortnite pressure.

The firm believes a very crowded holiday quarter may lead to challenges in early 2019 as publishers vie for gamer engagement to drive live services.

Wedbush thinks EA made the right decision to delay Battlefield V, arguing the game’s review scores should benefit from four extra weeks of development.  The firm says the company’s new guidance appears conservative. Wedbush maintains its EA price target of $158.

OpCo adds VMware (VMW, $155.65) to its Top Picks list and raises its price target to $180 from $170, saying the current valuation still reflects skepticism with respect to the company’s competitive positioning and ability to grow in the face of a cloud transition.

The firm says it’s incrementally more positive on the VMware’s ability to execute on its any cloud/application/device strategy and drive further license growth. OpCo’s customer survey points to strong spending intentions and new product uptake ahead.

Shares of Electronic Arts (EA, $119.90) are down more than 6% this morning after the game maker announces the push-back of the Battlefield V launch by four weeks, to November 20, in order to make “some final adjustments to core gameplay.”

Partially because of the game delay, the company reduces its FY’19 (March) net bookings guidance to $5.2 billion from $5.55 billion.

Jefferies boosts its PayPal (PYPL, $92.62) price target to $110 from $100, saying the company’s growth story is more than just Venmo. The firm calls out PayPal’s core person-to-person business and the impressive growth in mobile.

Berenberg starts PayPal at ‘Buy’ with a price target of $104. The firm views PayPal as a core holding in the payments/fintech space, saying the company is “well positioned to enable financial inclusion via its wide product range.” 

The firm says PayPal’s two-sided platform, which serves merchants and consumers, makes it unique. Berenberg believes innovators such as PayPal will remain competitive against new entrants to the payments sector.

Morgan Stanley raises its Amazon (AMZN, $1,951) price target to $2,500 from $1,850 to reflect an improving business mix. The firm believes the new target more accurately represents the company’s long-term potential earnings power.

Morgan Stanley is increasingly confident that Amazon’s rapidly growing, high-margin revenue streams—including advertising, AWS and subscriptions—will drive higher profitability, which will continue to push up consensus estimates.

Here are the firm’s latest assigned valuations in its new sum-of-the-parts model:

*Core retail: $625 billion

*AWS cloud business: $375 billion

*Prime subscriber revenue: $100 billion

*Advertising unit: $125 billion

Guggenheim names Square (SQ, $80.80) its best new idea and raises its price target to $100 from $75.

The firm believes subscription and services-based revenue will be stronger than anticipated, and says the Cash App mobile payment service has an emerging “butterfly effect” given its key role in providing services to the underbanked. 

Over the longer-term, Guggenheim expects further build-out of Cash App’s services. The firm thinks the strategy is likely to generate significant incremental subscription and services-based revenue for Square.

Shares of FireEye (FEYE, $16.16) have rebounded to the downtrend line dating back to the April high of $19.36. 

The stock has rallied from its August 17 low of $14.20 to retake the 200-day moving average at $16.12. There’s short-term resistance at $16.57, $16.78 and $17.05.

Baird upgrades Xilinx (XLNX, $75.24) to ‘Outperform’ and raises its price target to $90 from $71, saying its field research suggests a very recent and significant acceleration in 5G-related orders for FPGAs scheduled for later this year. 

The firm also thinks the datacenter market represents a significant longer-term growth opportunity for the company.

Shares of Arista Networks (ANET, $303.48) are up more than 7% this morning on news the stock would be added to the S&P 500 Index (replacing GGP) effective prior to the open of trading on Tuesday, August 28.

On the charts, Arista stock has pushed through resistance at $301.31 from March. The all-time high of $311.67 was reached in February.

Arista Networks is a holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Vulture Portfolio.

Shares of Splunk (SPLK, $120.75) are surging 12% this morning after the company last night delivered beat-and-raise results. 

Revenue in fiscal Q2 (July) rose 39% to $388.3 million, above the consensus estimate of $358.5 million. EPS of eight cents topped the consensus by three cents.

For FQ3, Splunk sees revenue of $430 million to $432 million, vs. the consensus of $427.5 million.

Splunk’s all-time high of $121.64 was reached in the middle of June. Today’s early high was $120.91.

Splunk has been a core holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Vulture Portfolio since February 2015, added when the stock was trading at $67.29.

Canaccord raises its Qualcomm (QCOM, $67.25) price target to $88 from $81, saying it sees upward revisions to earnings as the company continues to buy back stock and settle patent infringement cases.

Over the past 30 days, the 2018 consensus EPS estimate has risen 36 cents to $3.62, while the 2019 consensus is up 64 cents to $4.14. The Street-high estimate for next year is $5.27.

Qualcomm shares have rebounded from the April low of $48.56.

Piper Jaffray upgrades Acacia Communications (ACIA, $39.56) to ‘Overweight’ with a price target of $46 (up from $38), saying demand for optical is improving and the company is the best way to play the upcoming 400G cycle.

The firm believes revenue growth at Acacia—a provider of optical interconnect products—will accelerate amid easy comps, improving demand from ZTE, recent design wins and upcoming product cycles. Piper Jaffray thinks the company can return to profitability levels seen before the China/ZTE slowdown.

Acacia shares have rebounded sharply from the April low of $24.72, but remain well below the 52-week high of $50.10.

MKM Partners lifts its Amazon (AMZN, $1,886) price target to $2,215 from $1,840 based on long-term growth potential and a “margin story” that sets up the stock “very well” for the next several quarters.

The firm sees the AWS business as being in the “sweet spot” of margin expansion, lapping absorption of aggressive build-out comp costs. MKM also thinks Amazon’s fulfillment capacity expansion from the last two years is just now entering its utilization phase.

Jefferies raises its Salesforce (CRM, $145.53) price target to $168 from $155 based on strong enterprise checks, particularly in Europe and across verticals. The firm also sees a healthy 2H FY’19 pipeline.

Wedbush takes its Salesforce target up to $160 from $150, saying the demand environment remains strong. While the firm doesn’t have evidence to suggest a repeat of the FQ1 large-deal performance, checks anecdotally point to FQ2 (July) large deals closed in major verticals, with more in the pipeline, says the firm.

Susquehanna upgrades Symantec (SYMC, $19.57) to ‘Positive’ and raises its price target to $23 from $21. The firm believes that activist investor Starboard Value disclosing a 5.8% stake and nominating five directors to the board has introduced the potential for positive change. Susquehanna sees the risk/reward for the stock now more biased to the upside.

BofA/Merrill raises its Apple (AAPL, $216.04) price target to $250 from $230, saying its analysis of third-party data indicates that the relative contribution from games to App Store revenue is coming down. The firm views this diversification away from gaming as a positive for the company’s Services unit.

The strong growth rate of non-gaming categories gives BofA/Merrill increased confidence in the sustainability of strong App Store sales, leading the firm to raise its Services revenue estimate for 2019 by roughly $800 million.

Shares of Facebook (FB, $171.88) are in the process of retesting the post-Q2 earnings lows after retreating from the August 7 rebound high of $188.30. 

The stock has dipped back below its 200-day moving average at $181.81. The RSI is down to 33.7.

Traders are watching the July 30 closing price of $171.06 (the lowest close following the Q2 earnings report). There’s short-term support around the $170 level.

RBC Capital maintains its VMware (VMW, $151.34) price target of $172, saying the company remains well-positioned to capitalize on hybrid cloud adoption.

Barclays says its reseller checks on VMware came back strong for FQ2. VMware reports results for the July quarter after the close on Thursday.

OpCo upgrades NVIDIA (NVDA, $247.29) to ‘Outperform’ with a price target of $310. 

The firm calls out significant pent-up demand for the company’s recently introduced Turing gaming GPU. In addition, OpCo sees structural growth drivers in datacenter AI, gaming and autonomous driving.

Jefferies downgrades Nutanix (NTNX, $52.65) to ‘Hold,’ saying the company’s success over the past year is now adequately reflected in the stock price.

The firm believes Nutanix’s ongoing transition to a pure software model will ultimately benefit the company. However, like all transition stories, the model has become more difficult to forecast, says Jefferies.

Nutanix shares ended 2017 at $35.28. After a new all-time high of $64.87 was reached on June 14, the stock retreated, hitting a pivot low of $47.57 in late July.

Shares of Carbon Black (CBLK, $22.03) couldn’t hold above the 50-day moving average of $24.96 on the recent rally. Traders are watching for a potential test of the recent low at $19.76.

The company, a provider of endpoint security solutions, went public in May at $19 a share, with an opening trade at $24.70.

Activist investor Starboard Value has disclosed a 5.8% stake in Symantec (SYMC, $19.90) and nominated a slate of five directors to the company’s 11-person board. The stock this morning is up more than 7% on the news.

On August 3, Symantec shares hit a new 52-week low of $17.81.

In the latest quarter, the company’s enterprise security business saw implied billings fall nearly 20% (when adjusted for divestitures and acquisitions). 

Stifel says a recent survey indicated that enterprises are shifting more toward next-generation endpoint vendors—including CrowdStrike, SentinelOne, Malwarebytes, Cybereason and Cylance—from legacy vendors. The firm thinks Symantec is facing share losses caused by displacements.

Shares of enterprise cloud-software vendor Workday (WDAY, $142.04) this morning hit a new all-time high at $142.50.

Workday has been a core holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Vulture Portfolio since April 2014, added when the stock was trading at $74.25.

Credit Suisse raises its Salesforce (CRM, $146.57) price target to $170 from $155 based on continued strong business momentum. 

The firm believes deeper penetration and integration within the enterprise remains a massive opportunity that the company is successfully capturing.

Shares of NVIDIA (NVDA, $260.09) are holding comfortably above the 50-day moving average of $252.63 after rebounding from the July 2 low of $233.26.

Cowen sees a favorable set-up headed into FQ2 (July) results on Thursday, saying well-documented choppiness in the gaming channel will be offset by continued robust datacenter demand and backlog. 

The firm sees little risk to near-term numbers from crypto, as the company de-risked that segment with earlier guidance. Cowen maintains its NVDA price target of $325.

Morgan Stanley ups its Salesforce (CRM, $144.45) price target to $178 from $153, saying it expects a faster pace of overall revenue growth during the next few years, with secular tailwinds firmly intact.

Unlocking data trapped in legacy systems via the MuleSoft unit brings Salesforce to the forefront of driving digital transformations for its customers, says the firm. Morgan Stanley believes consensus expectations likely underestimate Salesforce’s growth potential and improved track record in M&A.

Needham trims its Microchip Technology (MCHP, $87.55) price target to $120 from $130 as the company clears through roughly $100 million of excess Microsemi inventory, which had been “stuffed” into the channel ahead of the acquisition.

The firm believes Microchip can clear out the excess inventory during the next two quarters. 

More concerning was management’s commentary around tariffs and the possible impact on demand, says Needham. While that situation needs to be monitored, the firm says EPS of $8 in FY’21 still appears to be on track.

For more on Microchip, see TechStock Radar—August 10, 2018.

Piper Jaffray believes that by 2021 advertising operating income will likely exceed income from the AWS unit at Amazon (AMZN, $1,886).

The firm thinks it’s reasonable to assign Amazon’s emerging advertising business a value of $150 billion to $190 billion. 

Piper assumes $8 billion of ad revenue in 2018 doubles to $16 billion by 2020, with margins improving along the way. A “reasonable” operating margin profile for this revenue stream would drive 2020 operating profits of $10 billion to $12 billion, says the firm.

Piper maintains its AMZN price target of $2,100.

After a successful test of the 200-day moving average around the $95 level at the end of July, Splunk (SPLK, $105.64) shares have rebounded to the 50-day moving average of $106.59. The RSI is rising from 54.9.

There’s short-term resistance at $106.61 and $108.33.

On the Microchip Technology (MCHP, $85.67) earnings call last night, CEO Steve Sanghi gave an update on the recently completed acquisition of Microsemi (on May 29), saying it found that “Microsemi management was extremely aggressive in shipping inventory into the distribution channel.”

Microsemi’s distributors had four months of inventory on hand, whereas Microchip’s distributors typically carry just two and a half months inventory. Sanghi said it will take a couple of quarters to work off Microsemi’s excess inventory in the channel.

Microchip shares this morning are down more than 12%.

Shares of Electronic Arts (EA, $128.68) are down significantly from the all-time high of $151.26 reached on July 13, but have been holding above the 200-day moving average at $123.76.

There is short-term support at $125.30 and $127.10. Short-term resistance stands at $130.78.

Shares of SailPoint Technologies (SAIL, $28.41), provider of an enterprise identity governance platform, are surging nearly 10% this morning following the release of  strong Q2 results. 

Earlier, the stock hit a new post-IPO high at $29.80. SailPoint went public in November 2017 at $12, with an opening trade at $14.90.

In Q2, total revenue rose 39% to $54.6 million, beating the consensus estimate of $49.9 million. Subscription revenue of $25 million was up 53%, while license revenue of $19.1 million advanced 43%. 

Per-share earnings came in at three cents, five cents above the consensus.

For 2018, SailPoint’s new revenue guidance range is $233 million to $236 million, upwardly revised from the previous guide of $225 million to $229 million.

JP Morgan upgrades CyberArk Software (CYBR, $70.62) to ‘Overweight’ and boosts its price target to $85 from $60 following last night’s release of strong Q2 results. Revenue was up 35% on license revenue growth of 36%.

CyberArk in Q2 experienced healthy demand for its privileged account security solutions across several key verticals and all geographies.

The company should see valuation expansion on the back of four straight quarters of solid top-line results, says JP Morgan. The firm believes CyberArk can post strong revenue growth through 2020.

UBS raises its CYBR price target to $74 from $71, saying the company in Q2 demonstrated broad-based strength, driven by improved sales productivity and a return to consistent execution.

CyberArk shares this morning are up more than 14%. A new 52-week high was reached at $71.25.

Canaccord Genuity raises its Twilio (TWLO, $75.10) price target to $80 from $52 following Q2 results that showed upside on every metric the firm tracks. 

The firm highlights three key bullish points: Twilio turned profitable one quarter earlier than expected, Q3 guidance was well above the consensus and the new Flex cloud contact center application platform is showing solid early traction.

Twilio shares yesterday surged 18.7%. A new all-time high was reached at $77.31.

Since January 2017, Twilio has been a holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Small-Cap Portfolio, added when the stock was trading at $27.56.

Facebook (FB, $186.95) shares have rallied back above the 200-day moving average of $181.67. The stock is recovering off of the pivot low of $166.56 reached on July 30.

The next upside level to watch is the 50-day moving average, which is trending sideways from $195.27.

Shares of Twilio (TWLO, $73.05), provider of a cloud communications platform, this morning are up more than 15% after the company last night reported Q2 revenue growth of 54%, sharp acceleration from 48% growth in Q1 and 41% growth in Q4. Per-share earnings of three cents beat the consensus by eight cents. 

Twilio shares this morning hit a new all-time high at $77.31.

Twilio has been a holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Small-Cap Portfolio since January 2017, added when the stock was trading at $27.56.

Barclays downgrades Intel (INTC, $49.63) to ‘Equal Weight’ and lowers its price target to $53 from $62 because it believes upside in the shares will be challenging until the company’s margins hit bottom.

Stifel adds Facebook (FB, $177.78) to its Select List, saying it believes expectations are now at an appropriate level to allow for longer-term outperformance given the material reset that followed the company’s “painful” Q2 update. 

The firm maintains its Facebook price target of $202.

After dipping to a low of $46.43 on July 30, Intel (INTC, $49.56) shares have rebounded back above their 200-day moving average at $48.66.

The stock is now in the middle of the late-July gap on the price chart that runs up to $51.87.

The 50-day moving average is trending downward from $52.47.

JP Morgan does not see the Cisco Systems (CSCO, $42.62) acquisition of Duo Security having a major impact on Okta (OKTA, $53.63).

Duo is best known for its multi-factor authentication (MFA), and MFA is only one out of six products offered by Okta, explains the firm.

MKM Partners reduces its Facebook (FB, $173.23) price target to $230 from $255, but remains bullish on the company, saying the recent pullback in the stock represents a buying opportunity.

The firm admits deceleration in revenue growth is coming sooner than it had thought, but says it knew it would eventually happen, and thinks it’s been reflected in the stock for a long time.

MKM believes Facebook has a near-term potential accelerator in messaging.

Cisco Systems (CSCO, $41.94) is buying privately held Duo Security—a provider of unified access management and multi-factor authentication solutions delivered via the cloud—for $2.35 billion in cash.

Duo’s zero-trust authentication and access solutions verify user identities and the health of their devices before granting them access to applications.

Duo competes with Okta (OKTA, $51.56), which sports a market cap of $5.5 billion. Okta went public in April 2017 at $17, with an opening trade at $23.75. The post-IPO high of $61 was reached on June 7.

For more on Okta, see the June 2018 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector (TSP #196).

Apple (AAPL, $198.25) shares this morning traded to a new all-time high at $199.26 following last night’s strong FQ3 (June) earnings report (revenue up 17%) and solid FQ4 (Sept.) top-line guidance. 

Needham ups its Apple price target to $220 from $210 based on an expanding ecosystem of “subscribers.” The firm’s research indicates that an average iOS consumer stays within the Apple ecosystem for 10 years.

Apple has been a core holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Vulture Portfolio since May 2013, added when the stock was trading at $61.68.

Citi thinks the recent sell-off in Tableau Software (DATA, $105.63) stock provided a good entry point. The firm believes the company is well positioned going into the Q2 earnings report after the close tomorrow.

Deutsche Bank upgrades Tableau to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $120 (up from $105), saying demand remains strong for the company’s data analytics solutions. 

Tableau shares traded to a new 52-week high of $112.42 on July 24. Yesterday’s pivot low was $100.80.