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TechStock Radar
E-mail: Rob@techstockprospector.com
Technorati
December 2018
Archives
 
Monday, December 31, 2018, 10:32 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
A Valuation Reset at Spotify

MKM Partners remains bullish on Spotify (SPOT, $113.76) in the spite of the stock’s “significant valuation meltdown,” saying the company’s fundamentals have not changed.

The firm believes Spotify has the right platform to create the most long-term value for the music ecosystem. MKM maintains its SPOT price target of $200.

On December 21, B. Riley FBR reduced its SPOT price target to $132 from $200, calling it a valuation reset “at a time of market caution.”

On December 24, Spotify shares traded to a new post-IPO low of $103.29. The post-IPO high of $198.99 was reached in July.

 
Friday, December 28, 2018, 12:39 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Facebook

Facebook (FB, $134.07) shares have recovered a bit from this week’s low of $123.02, but still remain well below the 50-day moving average of $142.19.

With the RSI flashing a short-term positive divergence, traders are watching to see if the stock can rally back to the 20-day moving average at $137.73.

 
Friday, December 28, 2018, 12:27 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Tenable Dips Below IPO Price

Shares of Tenable (TENB, $22.10) have fallen below their IPO price of $23.

The provider of security software that manages and measures cyberattack exposure went public in July 2018. The opening price was $33.

The post-IPO high of $39.38 was reached on October 1. The post-IPO low of $20 was reached on December 24.

 
Friday, December 21, 2018, 12:09 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
DA Davidson Sets Shopify Target at $150

DA Davidson upgrades Shopify (SHOP, $122.66) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $150, saying the recent pullback in the stock has created an attractive entry point for investors. 


The firm views Shopify—provider of a cloud-based, multi-channel commerce platform for SMBs—as a well-run company with the potential for open-ended growth, especially related to its early-stage international expansion and enterprise solution efforts.

 
Friday, December 21, 2018, 9:26 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Broadcom a Top Pick at JP Morgan

JP Morgan adds Broadcom (BRCM, $241.89) to the Analyst Focus List and names it the Top Pick in semis heading into 2019. The price target is $325.


The firm sees multiple growth tailwinds for Broadcom—including the cloud datacenter networking upgrade cycle and iPhone content gains. 


Broadcom has a “strong and diversified tech infrastructure model, solid FCF generation and another strong dividend raise coming next year,” according to JP Morgan.

 
Thursday, December 20, 2018, 10:10 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Autodesk Gets Bigger in Construction

Autodesk (ADSK, $128.97) will acquire BuildingConnected, a digital network of more than 700,000 construction pros, for $275 million net of cash. Using the BuildingConnected network, real estate owners and general contractors are able to find and hire qualified contractors for their projects. 


The acquisition adds bid management, risk analysis and other pre-construction solutions to Autodesk’s construction portfolio.


Autodesk today also announced the completion of the acquisition of PlanGrid, a leading provider of construction productivity software, for $875 million net of cash. The two companies have developed complementary construction software.


Autodesk’s BIM 360 construction management platform connects the people, data and workflows on construction projects throughout the project lifecycle, while PlanGrid software lets general contractors, subcontractors and owners benefit from real-time access to project plans, punch lists, project tasks, progress photos and daily field reports.

 
Thursday, December 20, 2018, 9:32 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Apple Price Target Cut at Needham

Needham reduces its Apple (AAPL, $160.68) price target to $200 from $260, citing increased risk to China revenue from the more heightened trade tensions, weak demand/falling market share for the iPhone in India and the potential economic slowdown offshore.


But the firm remains long-term positive on Apple, saying the stock is an “inexpensive way” to participate in the broad macro economic trends of growing global consumer wealth and a shift to mobile.

 
Wednesday, December 19, 2018, 10:45 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Jefferies Sees Value in Apple

Jefferies lowers its Apple (AAPL, $166.39) price target to $225 from $265, but maintains its ‘Buy’ rating, saying it thinks the iPhone business still looks sufficient enough to build a “massive, high-margin and high-multiple” Services unit. 


The firm believes the Services business can deliver a five-year revenue CAGR of 19%, with gross margin of 60% to 66%.

 
Wednesday, December 19, 2018, 9:12 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BTIG Upgrades Q2 to 'Buy'

BTIG Research upgrades Q2 Holdings (QTWO, $47.32), a provider of cloud-based solutions for banks, to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $61, saying it thinks the 28% decline in the stock price since mid-September makes the shares “inexpensively valued.”


The firm believes Q2’s growth rate should re-accelerate in 2019, as Tier-1 bank customers signed in late 2017 and early 2018 begin to go live, providing a top-line boost.


For 2019, the consensus revenue estimate of $306.1 million indicates growth of 27.2%, an uptick from the 2018 consensus growth estimate of 24.1%.

 
Tuesday, December 18, 2018, 10:25 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Zuora

Shares of Zuora (ZUO, $16.56), provider of a cloud-based subscription management software platform, yesterday tested the post-IPO low of $16 reached on November 20.


Zuora went public in April 2018 at $14 a share, with an opening trade at $20.25.


The 50-day moving average, trending downward from $19.33, coincides with a short-term downtrend line from the November high of $22.02.

 
Tuesday, December 18, 2018, 9:19 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Craig-Hallum Still Upbeat on GrubHub

Craig-Hallum lowers its GrubHub (GRUB, $75.89) price target to $150 from $180 to reflect reduced peer valuations, but reiterates its ‘Buy’ rating because it believes the restaurant delivery network is growing at its fastest pace since the acquisition of Eat24, laying the foundation for significant revenue expansion in 2019.


The consensus revenue estimate for next year of $1.35 billion represents growth of 33.3%.


GrubHub shares are down sharply from the all-time high of $149.35 reached in September.

 
Monday, December 17, 2018, 10:08 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Shopify Stays Volatile

After rallying 34% from the November 20 low of $122 to the recent high of $164.13, Shopify (SHOP, $134.55) shares are in pullback mode once again, falling back below the 50-day moving average, which is trending downward from $141.46. There’s short-term support at $129.65.

 
Monday, December 17, 2018, 9:17 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Needham: Arista a Top Idea for 2019

Needham names Arista Networks (ANET, $220.41) its single best idea in the networking space for 2019.


Calling Arista a “highly attractive asset” from a valuation standpoint, the firm says the company’s top-line growth remains consistent in the 20% to 30% range. Needham suspects Arista will next start to expand into security.


Needham maintains its ANET price target of $315.

 
Friday, December 14, 2018, 10:40 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Zscaler

Shares of Zscaler (ZS, $43.42) are testing short-term resistance at $43.40. The next upside level to watch is $47.79 from early September. 


The stock has rebounded 41% from the November 20 low of $30.72. The RSI is rising from 61.8. The 50-day moving average at $37.64 recently turned upward.


The post-IPO high of $48.24 was reached in late August. Zscaler went public in March 2018 at $16 a share, with an opening trade at $27.50.


For more on Zscaler, see the December 2018 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector (TSP #202).

 
Friday, December 14, 2018, 9:36 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Needham Ups MongoDB PT to $97

Needham raises its MongoDB (MDB, $87.65) price target to $97 from $91, saying it believes the company’s product roadmap has a multi-year feature advantage in meeting the requirements of modern applications over most competitors.


The capabilities announced this week at the annual developer conference extend the company’s modern database advantage even further, according to the firm.

 
Thursday, December 13, 2018, 10:11 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Citi Sees Value in NVIDIA

Citi adds NVIDIA (NVDA, $150.43) to its ‘Semis Christmas Shopping List,’ citing the recent sell-off in the stock amid continued healthy revenue growth in the datacenter business.


The firm maintains its bullish thesis on NVIDIA, calling the company a key beneficiary of important secular growth trends—such as eSports, deep learning, AI and autonomous driving.

 
Thursday, December 13, 2018, 9:23 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Morgan Stanley Upgrades ForeScout

Morgan Stanley upgrades ForeScout Technologies (FSCT, $26.79) to ‘Overweight’ with a price target of $36, saying the sharp pullback in the stock over the past three months has created a compelling entry point. 


At the November 19 low of $22.80, ForeScout shares had fallen as much as 44% from the all-time high of $40.96 reached on Sept. 17.


ForeScout is uniquely exposed to the strong secular theme of enterprises needing to increase security and compliance for a growing diversity of connected devices, according to Morgan Stanley.


For 2019, the firm sees several drivers of ramping growth. The 2019 consensus revenue estimate of $346 million indicates growth of 19.1%. In the latest quarter, ForeScout reported top-line growth of 23%.

 
Wednesday, December 12, 2018, 10:05 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Broadcom

Shares of Broadcom (AVGO, $256.50) have pushed through short-term resistance at the $252 level from early October. The RSI is rising from 66.7. 


The next upside level to watch is $271.81 from June. The March high stands at $273.85.

 
Wednesday, December 12, 2018, 9:24 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
RBC Lowers NVIDIA Target

RBC Capital lowers its NVIDIA (NVDA, $148.19) price target to $230 from $260 following yesterday’s report that SoftBank is exploring the sale of its stake in the company early next year.


In the near-term, the speculation is negative since SoftBank has “solid information on overall datacenter trends,” says the firm.


However, RBC maintains its bullish view on NVIDIA, saying the company’s long-term investment story around AI, VR/AR and autonomous driving remains intact.

 
Tuesday, December 11, 2018, 10:01 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Piper Jaffray Lowers EA Target

Piper Jaffray believes Electronic Arts (EA, $84.96) will offer conservative FY’20 (March) guidance that is below the current consensus estimates of $5.57 billion and $5.12. 


EA management will want to include a layer of conservatism to allow for upside as it progresses throughout the year, according to the firm.


Piper reduces its EA price target to $105 from $148, but maintains its ‘Overweight’ rating because the target still implies ample upside potential from current levels.

 
Tuesday, December 11, 2018, 9:28 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Wolfe Research Positive on Nutanix

Wolfe Research starts Nutanix (NTNX, $43.16) at ‘Outperform’ with a price target of $55, saying the company’s Xi cloud strategy is working to make true hybrid and multi-cloud a reality, reducing the friction to move back and forth between on-prem and the cloud.

 
Monday, December 10, 2018, 10:22 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Deutsche Bank Still Bullish on Facebook

Calling the valuation “extremely attractive,” Deutsche Bank thinks Facebook (FB, $141.90) remains the best risk/reward play in large-cap Internet. 


The firm remains bullish, calling out the potential for core engagement to stabilize, monetization in the Stories format to drive a possible re-acceleration in growth in mid-2019 and the negative news cycle to abate.


Deutsche Bank is encouraged that the Facebook board expanded the repurchase authorization again by an additional $9 billion.

 
Monday, December 10, 2018, 10:15 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Citi Lowers Apple Target

Citi reduces its Apple (AAPL, $165.79) price target to $200 from $240 based on concerns about business in China, a market that represents about 18% of total sales. 


The firm expects Apple to report revenue in the December quarter that’s toward the lower end of guidance. Citi thinks consensus estimates still need to move down before the stock can hit a bottom.

 
Friday, December 7, 2018, 10:09 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Arista

After finding short-term support at the $210 level, shares of Arista Networks (ANET, $239.65) have rallied to retake the 50-day moving average at $237.16. 


There’s short-term resistance at $249. A close above the $250 level would take out the downtrend line from the August high.


The 200-day moving average is trending sideways from $260.57.

 
Friday, December 7, 2018, 9:45 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Talend

Following a sharp pullback in November, Talend (TLND, $39.87) shares are starting to show some buying interest. 


The stock has rebounded 22% off of its November 20 low of $32.66. There’s short-term resistance at $42.70.

 
Thursday, December 6, 2018, 12:12 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
A New High for Elastic

Shares of Elastic (ESTC, $77.60), an enterprise-search provider, today are rallying 7% after the company last night delivered FQ2 (Oct.) revenue growth of 72%. 


In Elastic’s first quarterly report as a public company, revenue topped the consensus by 12.5%. Calculated billings of $88.5 million were up 73%. Deferred revenue jumped 78%.


Elastic added more than 800 new customers, bringing the total count to 6,300+.


For FY’19 (April), revenue guidance of $254 million to $258 million (growth of 60% at the midpoint) topped the consensus of $237 million.


The stock today hit a new post-IPO high at $77.91. Elastic went public in October 2018 at $36 a share, with an opening trade at $70.


For more on Elastic, see the November 2018 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector (TSP #201).

 
Thursday, December 6, 2018, 9:42 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
JP Morgan Bullish on Cisco

JP Morgan adds Cisco Systems (CSCO, $46.84) to its Analyst Focus List as a value play. The price target is $59.


Cisco is now the firm’s top pick in networking equipment/IT hardware based on its accelerating product momentum and secular transformation to software & recurring revenue. 

 
Tuesday, December 4, 2018, 10:09 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
A New High for Workday

Shares of Workday (WDAY, $172.12) this morning are showing relative strength, hitting a new all-time high at $172.34.


Workday has been a core cloud-software holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Vulture Portfolio since April 2014, added when the stock was trading at $74.25.

 
Tuesday, December 4, 2018, 9:24 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
HSBC Downgrades Apple

HSBC downgrades Apple (AAPL, $184.82) to ‘Hold’ with a price target of $200, saying it believes growth in the core iPhone business is set to “slow dramatically.”


Apple’s revenue growth will decelerate amid longer smartphone replacement cycles and penetration saturation in core markets, says the firm.


With HSBC now “less enthusiastic” about Apple’s ability to make significant headway in emerging markets such as India, the firm argues that the “lion’s share of future revenue (products and services) will be dependent on the current installed base, which is unlikely to grow materially.”

 
Monday, December 3, 2018, 10:12 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Facebook

Facebook (FB, $142.40) shares are in rally mode, recovering from the November low of $126.85. 


There’s short-term resistance at $145.60. The 50-day moving average is trending downward from $149.87.


A move above ~$153 is needed to break the downtrend line from the early August high.

 
Monday, December 3, 2018, 9:24 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Broadcom Upgraded by B. Riley FBR

B. Riley FBR upgrades Broadcom (AVGO, $237.41) to ‘Buy’ and raises its price target to $300 from $250 based on updated 2019 & 2020 earnings estimates to reflect accretion from the CA Technologies acquisition. 


Broadcom shares have bounced back from the late October low of $208.23. There’s short-term resistance at $241.10 and $242.60.

   
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