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TechStock Radar
E-mail: Rob@techstockprospector.com
Technorati
December 2017
Archives
 
Friday, December 15, 2017, 11:37 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BMO Capital Trims Oracle Target

BMO Capital trims its Oracle (ORCL, $47.84) price target to $55 from $57, saying the long-term growth of cloud revenue (particularly the SaaS business) is becoming a concern for investors.

The firm reduces its FY’19 cloud revenue growth forecast to 22% from 28%, with an accompanying 9% decline expected for software license sales.

 
Friday, December 15, 2017, 10:49 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
RBC Capital Downgrades Oracle

RBC Capital downgrades Oracle (ORCL, $47.80) to ‘Sector Perform’ and reduces its price target to $51 from $53 based on expectations for expanded license revenue declines in FQ4 and beyond based on difficult comps and a maturing of the product cycle.

In FQ2 (Nov.), Oracle’s total cloud revenue rose 44% to $1.52 billion, made up of SaaS revenue gaining 55% to $1.12 billion and cloud software (Iaas/PaaS) up 21% to $396 million.

Oracle shares this morning are down nearly 5%.

 
Friday, December 15, 2017, 9:20 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
December Issue of TSP Available on Kindle

Download the new issue of Tech-Stock Prospector to your Kindle or Kindle reading app for iOS (iPad & iPhone) and Android. 


Order the latest issue of TSP here.



Here are some of the topics covered in the December 2017 issue:


*Our Best Ideas for 2018
*Facebook refocuses on video content


*Amazon continues to dominate with AWS


*Accelerated revenue growth at Splunk

*Assessing the long-term potential for Coupa

*New verticals offer upside for Veeva Systems

*Salesforce steadily adds market share
*Microsoft hits a key cloud milestone


*Trend Watch: Semiconductor consolidation


*Why some smart investors like Marvell



*Enterprise momentum builds at New Relic

*ServiceNow remains a leader in the cloud


*Small-Cap Watch: Alteryx shines out of the gate


*The importance of channel partners in software


*Talend goes bigger internationally


*How Akamai benefits from e-commerce


*Intel is primed for improved expense leverage


*Proofpoint makes a smart acquisition


*Varonis stands out from other security vendors


*Deal Report: SailPoint Technologies

 
Thursday, December 14, 2017, 11:01 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Salesforce

Salesforce (CRM, $105.02) shares continue to rebound off of the December 5 low of $98.68, and are now approaching short-term resistance at $105.35. The 50-day moving average continues to rise from $102.03. There’s additional resistance at $107.60.
 
Thursday, December 14, 2017, 9:47 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
KeyBanc Raises Arista Target to $240

KeyBanc raises its Arista Networks (ANET, $228.70) price target to $240 from $213 based on increased confidence in the company’s ability to execute in the Global 2000 account base. Those customers are key growth drivers, as they’re looking to diversify and add next-generation architecture to their datacenters, says the firm.
 
Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 10:43 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Facebook

Facebook (FB, $178.67) shares are sitting just above the 50-day moving average of $176.72 after recovering from the recent dip to $169. There’s short-term resistance at $182.25.

The 200-day moving average is trending upward from $160.62.

Facebook hit an all-time high of $184.25 on November 28.

 
Wednesday, December 13, 2017, 9:45 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BMO Capital Raises PayPal PT to $85

BMO Capital raises its PayPal (PYPL, $74.85) price target to $85 from $80 as a result of modeling lower dilution and more cash from the sale of the company’s U.S. consumer credit receivables portfolio (announced last month).

The firm believes the savings on operating expenses are also central to limiting the negative bottom-line impact from the deal.

 
Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 10:43 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: NVIDIA

NVIDIA (NVDA, $191.37) shares remain below the 50-day moving average of $200.05. There’s short-term resistance around the $195 level. The December 5 low of $180.58 (17% below the all-time high of $218.67) marks short-term support.

The 200-day moving average is trending upward from $155.08.

 
Tuesday, December 12, 2017, 10:30 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Morgan Stanley Upgrades Zayo

Morgan Stanley upgrades Zayo Group (ZAYO, $36.54) to ‘Overweight’ and lifts its price target to $40 from $33 based on expectations for positive revenue trends over the coming quarters as well as the potential for a REIT conversion announcement (possibly by mid-year 2018). The firm notes that most of Zayo’s communications infrastructure peers have reorganized as REITs.

We profiled Zayo in the February 2017 issue (TSP #180), calling out the company as a beneficiary of 5G wireless budgets. At the time, Zayo shares were trading around $31.60. Today, the stock hit a new all-time high at $36.98.

 
Monday, December 11, 2017, 12:15 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Elliott: NXP Semi Undervalued

Elliott Associates in a new shareholder presentation argues NXP Semiconductors (NXPI, $116.29) is worth $135 a share on a standalone basis (not including any control premium that would be customary in a takeover situation), above the Qualcomm (QCOM) buyout offer of $110.

The activist hedge fund owns roughly 6% of NXP. Elliott claims the Qualcomm bid is acting as a ceiling on NXP’s valuation.

Since rumors of Qualcomm’s interest in NXP arose in late September 2016, the stock prices of NXP’s peers have increased by approximately 65% compared to NXP’s increase of only 40%, according to Elliott. The firm says one would expect the stock price of a company in the midst of a takeover should have outperformed companies trading purely based on their standalone value.

Elliott sees a bright future for NXP standalone, saying about half of the company’s revenue is exposed to “exciting growth engines of the semiconductor market—automotive and industrial.”

Qualcomm responds by saying Elliott’s value assertion for NXP is “unsupportable” and is “clearly nothing more than an attempt to advance its own self-serving agenda.”

 
Monday, December 11, 2017, 11:33 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Proofpoint

Shares of Proofpoint (PFPT, $87.15) have retaken the 200-day moving average of $85.98, recovering a bit from the recent pullback.

From the all-time high of $97.92 reached in October, Proofpoint last week dipped to a low of $82.60, representing a 15% correction.

The stock remains below the 50-day moving average of $90.83. There’s short-term resistance around the $88 level.

 
Friday, December 8, 2017, 11:03 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Shopify

Shares of Shopify (SHOP, $100.67) are trying to make it back above the 50-day moving average, which is now trending downward from $102.26. Today’s early high was $102.96.

The stock recently found buyers at the 200-day moving average of $91.91. There’s short-term congestion in the $105 to $106 range.

 
Friday, December 8, 2017, 10:07 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Evercore ISI Hikes Microsoft PT to $106

Evercore ISI takes its Microsoft (MSFT, $84.10) price target up to $106 based on cloud momentum.

The firm believes Microsoft is on a multi-year path to a market cap of $1 trillion (about $128 a share) by 2020, if not before then. Evercore ISI sees the company over the next three years generating $115 billion of cumulative free cash flow.

 
Thursday, December 7, 2017, 10:19 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Cowen Names Amazon a 2018 Best Idea

Cowen names Amazon (AMZN, $1,157) a Best Idea for 2018 and raises its price target to $1,500 from $1,225. The firm calls out the following fundamental drivers: B2C e-commerce share gains, emerging e-commerce verticals (including B2B), significant international opportunities and advertising potential.
 
Thursday, December 7, 2017, 9:42 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Splunk

Splunk (SPLK, $81.06) shares retreated from the recent high of $84.88 to test the 20-day moving average at $77.39, hitting a low of $76.89 on Monday.

A continued bounce off of that moving average would put short-term resistance at $84.52 in play. The 50-day moving average is trending upward from $70.44.

 
Wednesday, December 6, 2017, 10:50 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Piper Jaffray Bullish on Netflix

Piper Jaffray reiterates its Netflix (NFLX, $183.46) price target of $240 after its analysis of search trends suggests Q4 upside potential for both international and U.S. subscribers. The firm says its model shows a high likelihood of Q4 subscriber outperformance, particularly on the international front.
 
Wednesday, December 6, 2017, 10:17 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Veeva Off 6% on FY'19 In-Line Guide

Shares of Veeva Systems (VEEV, $53.93) this morning are down more than 6% after the provider of cloud-based software for the life sciences industry last night offered only in-line revenue guidance for FY’19 (Jan.): $805 million, vs. the consensus estimate of $804.2 million. That translates into growth of 18.3% based on the FY’18 revenue guidance midpoint.

Veeva’s FQ3 (Oct.) revenue rose 23% to $176.1 million, above the consensus of $172.1 million. Subscription revenue of $141.9 million was up 25%.

For FQ4, the company expects revenue of $179 million to $180 million, vs. the consensus of $177.3 million.

Veeva shares have taken out the September low of $54.16, trading down to $52.70 earlier in the session. The next major support stands at $50 from April.

 
Tuesday, December 5, 2017, 10:21 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BofA/Merrill Lifts Netflix Target

BofA/Merrill boosts its Netflix (NFLX, $187.10) price target to $225 from $199 based on strong subscriber growth and pricing power. The firm continues to see international expansion as the key driver. For Q4, BofA/Merrill expects international subscriber growth to top 5 million.
 
Tuesday, December 5, 2017, 10:05 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Barclays Turns Bullish on Snap

Barclays upgrades Snap (SNAP, $14.51) to ‘Overweight’ and lifts its price target to $18 from $11, saying the investor narrative for 2018 could involve coexistence with Facebook (FB).

The firm believes Snap may begin to achieve or exceed consensus revenue estimates thanks to the pricing transition now in the later stages.

With the shares already beaten down and a high short interest relative to peers, Barclays thinks now is a good time to accumulate Snap.

Snap stock this morning is up 6.9%.

 
Monday, December 4, 2017, 9:58 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Monness Crespi Sets Netflix PT at $250

Monness Crespi & Hardt starts Netflix (NFLX, $186.29) at ‘Buy’ with a price target of $250, saying the company is well positioned for the next stage of growth. The firm believes competitive concerns are overdone and sees the level of content spend as a discretionary risk.
 
Monday, December 4, 2017, 9:49 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
William Blair Upgrades Palo Alto Networks

William Blair upgrades Palo Alto Networks (PANW, $145.38) to ‘Outperform’ based on new product offerings that are widening the competitive gap relative to peers.

The company’s new Application Framework is expected to provide better overall security outcomes by doing away with fragmented workflows and redundant infrastructure, while improving data correlation across different systems.

 
Friday, December 1, 2017, 12:15 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Ambarella Pops 17% on CV1 Prospects

Shares of Ambarella (AMBA, $63.75) today are jumping more than 17% following last night’s positive management commentary about the company’s upcoming CV1 computer vision chip.

In the latest quarter, Ambarella demonstrated and assembled the CV1 to key IP security and automotive customers, according to CEO Feng-Ming Wang.

The CEO said the chip has met the company’s “aggressive” targets for features, performance and power consumption. Ambarella will demonstrate the CV1 at CES in January.

We profiled Ambarella, focusing on the CV1 chip, in the October 2017 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector (TSP#188). At the time, Ambarella shares were trading around $49.75.

 
Friday, December 1, 2017, 10:22 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Nutanix Surges 11% on FQ1 Report

Traders liked last night’s FQ1 (Oct.) results out of Nutanix (NTNX, $36.72), sending the stock up nearly 12% this morning. Earlier, the shares hit a new 52-week high at $38.28.

Revenue rose 46% to $275.6 million, above the consensus estimate of $266.9 million. Deferred revenue rose 48% to $408.8 million, with billings up 32% to $315.3 million.

The company in FQ1 added more than 760 new accounts, bringing the customer base to 7,813, an increase of 75% y/y.

For FQ2, Nutanix sees revenue of $280 million to $285 million, vs. the consensus of $282 million.

In the July 2017 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector (TSP #185), we pointed out Nutanix’s modest valuation, when the stock was trading at $19.12.

For more on Nutanix, see the October 2017 issue of Tech-Stock Prospector (TSP #188).

 
Friday, December 1, 2017, 9:53 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Talend

Shares of Talend (TLND, $39.60) have fallen below the 50-day moving average of $41.37, pulling back from the all-time high of $46.32 reached on November 20.

The stock last month found buyers in the $38.70 to $38.80 range.

The 200-day moving average is trending upward from $35.75.

   
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