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TechStock Radar
E-mail: Rob@techstockprospector.com
Technorati
November 2018
Archives
 
Friday, November 30, 2018, 9:51 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
JP Morgan Stays Bullish on Apple

JP Morgan thinks the recent sell-off in Apple (AAPL, $178.51) shares puts the valuation at a level that “sets a fairly low bar.” 


The firm says traders have already priced in an “overly bearish scenario” of a greater than 10% iPhone volume decline in FY’19, the impact of multi-year volume declines in Services and potential new tariffs.


JP Morgan is sticking with its AAPL price target of $266, saying it does not find a need to tweak its iPhone volume forecasts for FY’19 and FY’20 any lower at this time.

 
Friday, November 30, 2018, 9:37 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Palo Alto Pops on Solid FQ1 Results

Accelerated top-line growth at Palo Alto Networks (PANW, $183.85) is sparking a 4%+ rally in the stock.


The company last night delivered FQ1 (Oct.) revenue growth of 31%, up from 29% growth in the previous quarter. EPS of $1.17 beat the consensus by 12 cents.


For FQ2, Palo Alto sees revenue of $675 million to $685 million, above the consensus estimate of $668.7 million.


OpCo lowers its PANW price target to $250 from $275 to account for the recent industry multiple contraction, but remains bullish on the company, saying FQ1 beat on almost every key metric.

 
Thursday, November 29, 2018, 10:05 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Salesforce

Salesforce (CRM, $142.51) shares have now retaken both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The RSI is rising from 57.9. 


There’s resistance at $143.63 from November 8 and $148.75 from October 12.

 
Thursday, November 29, 2018, 9:41 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Wedbush Bullish on Microsoft for 2019

Wedbush views the shift to the cloud as a major secular trend that is significantly benefiting Microsoft (MSFT, $110.47) in the field as a key tailwind, with momentum expected to continue for the next 12 to 18 months.


Azure’s cloud momentum is still in its early days of playing out across the company’s massive installed base and the Office 365 transition on consumer/enterprise provides additional growth, says Wedbush.


Wedbush maintains its MSFT price target of $140.

 
Wednesday, November 28, 2018, 9:53 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Strong Momentum at AWS

Jefferies says enterprise customers are making bigger commitments earlier with Amazon Web Services (AWS), increasing partner deal sizes by 3.5x. 


That’s good news for Amazon (AMZN, $1,609). AWS could generate $71 billion in revenue by 2020, estimates the firm. 


Jefferies maintains its AMZN price target of $2,300.

 
Wednesday, November 28, 2018, 9:26 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
2 Bulls on Salesforce

Citi lifts its Salesforce (CRM, $127.54) price target to $183 from $178, saying last night’s FQ3 (Oct.) results (revenue up 26%) show the company continues to have a broad set of growth drivers. 


The firm points to solid billings and margin performance, indicating Salesforce’s secular trends remain in place.


UBS notes that initial FY’20 (Jan.) revenue guidance came in above the consensus. With the shares recently seeing roughly 23% multiple compression, the firm believes a relief rally is warranted. 


UBS views the stock as somewhat of a defensive play in a rocky tech tape. The company’s digital transformation opportunity is building momentum and driving top-line growth. The firm maintains its CRM price target of $180.

 
Tuesday, November 27, 2018, 9:58 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Alphabet

Shares of Alphabet (GOOGL, $1,059) this morning are showing some relative strength. The stock is trying to stay above last week’s low of $1,002.


A move above roughly $1,060 would break the downtrend line from the early October high. 


There’s short-term resistance at $1,078 and $1,109. The 200-day moving average is trading sideways from $1,129.

 
Tuesday, November 27, 2018, 9:26 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Citi Remains Positive on DocuSign

Citi looks for DocuSign (DOCU, $41.11) to report billings upside when FQ3 results are released on December 6. 


The firm expects subscription revenue growth of 37% and total billings growth of 29%, both above consensus and guidance.


Citi maintains its DOCU price target of $70, saying the company’s attractive growth drivers are under-appreciated.


Docusign shares are down from the all-time high of $68.35 reached on August 28. 

 
Monday, November 26, 2018, 9:55 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
KeyBanc: AWS Remains a Bright Spot

For 2019, KeyBanc looks for the AWS unit of Amazon (AMZN, $1,537) to continue to deliver strong growth, powered by cloud/digital transformations becoming more of a mainstream phenomena.


The firm expects AWS revenue next year to top $35 billion, with operating profits above $10 billion for the first time.


Looking to 2021, KeyBanc estimates AWS revenue could double to more than $56 billion from $25 billion this year. 


KeyBanc believes AWS is likely to remain a bright spot within the broad Amazon product portfolio from both a revenue growth and profitability perspective during the cloud-first era.

 
Monday, November 26, 2018, 9:21 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Credit Suisse Bullish on NVIDIA

Credit Suisse starts coverage of NVIDIA (NVDA, $145) at ‘Outperform’ with a price target of $225, saying the recent sharp decline in the stock price provides a compelling entry point. The firm likes that expectations have been reset following disappointing Q4 guidance.

 
Friday, November 23, 2018, 12:05 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Fidelity Favors MongoDB

In Q3, Fidelity added 2.41 million shares of MongoDB (MDB, $76.47), boosting its position by 106%. The mutual-fund giant in Q2 bought 2.24 million shares.


Fidelity now owns 4.68 million shares, making it the #1 holder.


MongoDB, provider of a next-generation database platform, went public in October 2017 at $24 a share, with an opening trade at $33.

 
Friday, November 23, 2018, 10:25 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: FireEye

After a successful test of the 200-day moving average at $16.97, FireEye (FEYE, $18.49) shares are on the rebound. The RSI is rising from 52.9. 


There’s short-term resistance at $18.90 and $19.55. The 52-week high of $20.61 was reached on November 8.

 
Wednesday, November 21, 2018, 11:31 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Xilinx Shows Relative Strength

Shares of chipmaker Xilinx (XLNX, $86.30) have been holding up relatively well during the recent market turbulence, staying above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.


Susquehanna last week upgraded Xilinx to ‘Positive’ with a price target of $95, citing the company’s AI inference opportunity. 


Last Friday, Xilinx shares hit a new 52-week high of $91.17.

 
Wednesday, November 21, 2018, 10:16 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Smartsheet

Shares of Smartsheet (SMAR, $22.84) yesterday dipped to a low of $20.34, just below the July low of $20.50. 


The RSI of 42.0 is showing a positive divergence. The stock remains below its 50-day moving average of $26.39. There’s short-term resistance at $27.


Smartsheet shares this morning are rallying more than 5%.

 
Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BTIG Upgrades Qualys

BTIG Research upgrades Qualys (QLYS, $68.83) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $100, citing the company’s exposure to secular tailwinds around the growth of Internet of Things (IoT) technology and heightened awareness of cybersecurity risk. 


The firm is positive on Qualys’ profitable growth model and its excellent R&D development.


For 2019, analysts on average expect EPS growth of nearly 13% on revenue growth of 18.5%.

 
Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 9:08 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Goldman Lowers Apple Target to $182

Goldman Sachs lowers its Apple (AAPL, $185.86) price target to $182 from $209, saying it looks like “the balance of price and features in the iPhone XR may not have been well-received by users outside of the U.S.”


The firm sees material risk to March quarter guidance if current demand trends continue to play out.

 
Monday, November 19, 2018, 10:14 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Paycom

Shares of Paycom (PAYC, $117.97) have fallen below their 200-day moving average at $119.06 for the first time since February 2017.


There’s short-term support at $115 and $101.


Paycom shares are down from the all-time high of $164.08 reached on Sept. 14, 2018.

 
Monday, November 19, 2018, 9:35 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Baird Upgrades RingCentral

Baird upgrades RingCentral (RNG, $77.78) to ‘Outperform’ and raises its price target to $100 from $90, saying it’s more positive on the company due to the strong growth outlook and channel bookings. 


Recent data points from the RingCentral user conference and an industry conference reinforce the firm’s conviction in the company’s upside opportunity.


For more on RingCentral, see TechStock Radar—Nov. 16, 2018.

 
Friday, November 16, 2018, 12:12 PM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BlackBerry to Buy Cylance

BlackBerry (BB, $8.90) is pivoting more toward cybersecurity, announcing the $1.4-billion acquisition of privately held Cylance, a provider of AI-based endpoint threat detection solutions. 


Prior to forming Cylance, cofounder & CEO Stuart McClure was executive VP and global CTO at McAfee/Intel Security, while cofounder Ryan Permeh was chief scientist.


Cylance’s fiscal 2018 revenue totaled more than $130 million, growing 90%+. The company has 3,500+ customers, including more than 20% of the Fortune 500. The all-cash deal is expected to close by early next year.

 
Friday, November 16, 2018, 10:16 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
William Blair Likes RingCentral on Pullback

William Blair thinks the recent pullback in shares of RingCentral (RNG, $76.77), a provider of cloud communications & collaboration solutions, has set up an attractive buying opportunity “ahead of numerous incremental growth drivers in 2019.”


RingCentral is benefiting from the movement of business communications to the cloud, which is still in its early stages.


At the October 29 low of $69.60, the stock was off 29% from the all-time high of $98.15 reached on September 13.

 
Thursday, November 15, 2018, 10:45 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Piper Remains Bullish on Amazon

Piper Jaffray thinks Amazon (AMZN, $1,551) stock at recent levels presents “an opportunity for material appreciation in the coming 12 to 24 months,” citing potential for ongoing margin expansion and bottom-line upside.


From the Sept. 4 high of $2,050 to the October 30 low of $1,476, Amazon shares were off 28%.


The firm points out that Amazon over the past three years has beaten Q4 operating income guidance by an average of 94%, suggesting that a typical beat this year would exceed where consensus Q4 expectations were going into the Q3 report.


Piper maintains its AMZN price target of $2,050.

 
Thursday, November 15, 2018, 9:09 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
An Apple Buying Opportunity?

This week’s decline in Apple (AAPL, $186.80) shares presents a buying opportunity, according to Morgan Stanley. 


The firm maintains its price target of $253, saying the company’s December quarter guidance already incorporated recent supply chain revisions made by suppliers.


Morgan Stanley remains bullish on Apple based on the argument that the Services unit will “take the growth baton” from devices as the smartphone market matures.

 
Wednesday, November 14, 2018, 11:31 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: GrubHub

Shares of GrubHub (GRUB, $88.06) are beginning to stabilize around current levels following the harsh retreat from the all-time high of $149.35 reached on September 14.


At the October 30 low of $82.30, the stock had pulled back 45%. If Monday’s low of $84.02 can hold, the chart set-up shows a potential short-term double bottom. 


GrubHub shares remain below the 200-day moving average of $111.05.

 
Wednesday, November 14, 2018, 9:48 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Guggenheim Downgrades Apple

Guggenheim downgrades Apple (AAPL, $193.81) to ‘Neutral’ based on expectations for a 5% decline in iPhone unit sales in FY’19. The firm reduces its FY’19 EPS estimate to $12.97 from $13.41 (the consensus is $13.52).


Guggenheim calls out the fact that the ASP of the iPhone has increased 40% over the past 10 years, with half of that increase coming in FY’18 alone. With Apple’s growth via ASP now widely known, a period of digestion is likely, says the firm.

 
Tuesday, November 13, 2018, 9:35 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Susquehanna Upgrades NVIDIA

Susquehanna upgrades NVIDIA (NVDA, $196.98) to ‘Positive’ and reiterates its price target of $230. 


The firm sees upside for the company’s 7nm GPU product and likes the potential of the growing AI inference opportunity.


Susquehanna admits the odds of a guidance miss this week are high, but thinks the recent pullback in the stock may limit the downside scenario.

 
Tuesday, November 13, 2018, 9:17 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BTIG Upgrades Atlassian to 'Buy'

BTIG Research upgrades Atlassian (TEAM, $70.80) to ‘Buy’ with a price target of $100, saying the company is at the epicenter of the developer movement within the ongoing shift in the software industry.


Atlassian’s software tools that help teams work together position the company as a unique secular growth story powered by an innovative product and distribution model, says the firm.

 
Monday, November 12, 2018, 11:33 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
SAP Buying Qualtrics for $8 Billion

Qualtrics, a provider of enterprise survey software, is being bought by SAP (SAP, $101.26) ahead of its upcoming IPO in an $8-billion all-cash deal. The company is considered a leader in experience management.


The buyout valuation is a whopping 20x Qualtrics’ expected 2018 revenue of more than $400 million. Qualtrics has 9,000+ customers and is currently growing the top line greater than 40% annually.


The acquisition is SAP’s second-largest ever, trailing the 2014 buyout of Concur Technologies, a provider of travel & expense management software, for $8.3 billion.

 
Monday, November 12, 2018, 10:02 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
RBC Remains Bullish on NVIDIA

Ahead of the release of fiscal Q3 (Oct.) results later this week, RBC Capital reiterates its NVIDIA (NVDA, $193.49) price target of $310, saying it expects the performance from the Data Center segment to drive upside on the income statement. 


The firm says softness in gaming and crypto may be evident in the report, but believes those things have already been priced into the stock. 

 
Friday, November 9, 2018, 9:44 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: NVIDIA

After rebounding 26% from the October 29 low of $176.01, NVIDIA (NVDA, $202.61) shares ran into sellers at the $222 level, well below the 200-day moving average of $245.97.


It’s notable that the stock was never able to get back above it 20-day moving average on that rally. A 50% retracement of the rally would put the shares at $199.


The 50-day moving average of $248.91 is headed for a downside crossover of the 200-day moving average. 

 
Friday, November 9, 2018, 9:05 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
BofA/Merrill Downgrades Skyworks

BofA/Merrill downgrades Skyworks Solutions (SWKS, $83.40) to ‘Neutral’ and lowers its price target to $92 from $120 based on muted expectations for fiscal 2019 following the company’s disappointing guidance for the December quarter.


The firm believes the core high-end smartphone market has now matured, and doesn’t think content gains can offset unit weakness until perhaps the 5G cycle really kicks in.


For FY’19 (Sept.), BofA/Merrill is now only looking for revenue growth of about 1%, down from its prior forecast of +7%.

 
Thursday, November 8, 2018, 11:21 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Loop Capital Sees Ad Upside for Amazon

Loop Capital thinks Amazon (AMZN, $1,771) has a long runway for growth in digital ads. 


Calling Amazon “the front page of the Internet,” the firm cites industry sources in estimating that 55% of all product searches now begin on the website. 


Loop also points out that Amazon searches have a purchase conversion rate that’s 2x to 3x higher than Google because the visitors are much lower down in the purchase funnel.


Loop maintains its AMZN price target of $2,200.

 
Thursday, November 8, 2018, 9:23 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Jefferies Bullish on Zendesk

Jefferies views Zendesk (ZEN, $57.64)—provider of a customer service & engagement platform—as one of the most attractive mid-cap growth names, reiterating its price target of $82. 


Though the stock has been weak recently along with the rest of the software sector, Zendesk’s fundamental outlook remains positive, says the firm.


Jefferies believes the clearest benefit of the new bundled Zendesk Suite pricing is it allows the company to better monetize its non-Support products more quickly.


Zendesk is a core holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Small-Cap Portfolio, added in March 2015, when the stock was trading at $22.76.


Zendesk traded to a new all-time high of $72.76 on October 1.

 
Wednesday, November 7, 2018, 10:32 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Twilio Hits New All-Time High

Shares of Twilio (TWLO, $91.25) this morning reached a new all-time high of $91.43. The stock is surging more than 28% after last night’s strong Q3 beat-and-raise performance.


Revenue of $168.9 million topped the consensus estimate by 12%, jumping 68%, acceleration from growth of 54% in Q2 and 48% in Q1. Demand remains healthy for the company’s core messaging products.


For Q4, top-line guidance of $183 million to $185 million came in well above the consensus of $161.3 million.


Twilio is a holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Small-Cap Portfolio, added in January 2017, when the stock was trading at $27.56.

 
Wednesday, November 7, 2018, 10:07 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Tableau Jumps 16%, Hits New High

Tableau Software (DATA, $122.60) shares this morning are up more than 16% and have hit a new 52-week high at $123.88 after the provider of data visualization solutions last night reported strong Q3 results, with total annual recurring revenue growth accelerating to 45% from 44% in Q2.


The transition to subscriptions continues at a rapid pace. Ratable license bookings in Q3 were 81% of total bookings, up from 45% a year ago and well above guidance of 72% to 76%.


The company issued upbeat guidance for 2019, powered by demand for new subscription offerings.


Tableau is a core holding in the Tech-Stock Prospector Small-Cap Portfolio, added in April 2014, when the stock was trading at $63.38.

 
Tuesday, November 6, 2018, 10:14 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Workday

Shares of Workday (WDAY, $133.50) are trading back above the 200-day moving average of $131.50 after recovering from the October 26 low of $118.62. 


The stock remains below its 50-day moving average, which is now trending downward from $138.62. 


A close above ~$136.50 would break the downtrend line from the all-time high of $157.12 reached on September 4. There’s short-term resistance at $140.40.

 
Tuesday, November 6, 2018, 9:44 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Citi Upgrades Square to 'Buy'

Citi upgrades Square (SQ, $77.71) to ‘Buy’ and raises its price target to $90 from $67 based on continued strong revenue growth and expansion of the platform. 


The firm believes upcoming Q3 commentary on the overall health of the ecosystem, visibility into 2019 and progress on the CFO search will be positive toward restoring momentum in the stock.


At the October 30 low of $64.49, Square shares were off 36% from the all-time high of $101.15 reached on October 1.

 
Monday, November 5, 2018, 9:41 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Apple

Apple (AAPL, $202.10) shares are seeing some follow-on selling from Friday. The 50-day moving average has begun to turn downward from $220.91.


If the selling momentum continues, we could be headed for a near-term test of the 200-day moving average at $191.72.


There’s a gap on the price chart from July/August that ranges from $192.14 to $197.31.

 
Monday, November 5, 2018, 9:27 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Needham Upgrades Cloudera

Needham upgrades Cloudera (CLDR, $14.25) to ‘Strong Buy’ and raises its price target to $31 from $23, saying the combination with Hortonworks (HDP) will bring accelerating operating leverage that would have taken longer to achieve on a standalone basis. 


The firm calls out the strategic value of the Cloudera/Hortonworks merger, given that the two companies have respective areas of strength in separate use cases for IoT and AI/machine learning. That fits in well with customers increasingly displaying a strong preference for a single vendor.


Needham also points to a large valuation gap between the “new” Cloudera and the peer group. 


Cloudera shares traded above $20 as recently as October 4. Last week, the stock hit a low of $12.63.

 
Friday, November 2, 2018, 9:53 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Facebook

Facebook (FB, $153.33) shares have begun to show some stability, recovering from the 52-week low of $139.03 reached on Monday.


The stock needs to take out the $161 level to break the downtrend line from the August high. There’s also short-term resistance at $160.50.


The 50-day moving average is trending downward from $160.65.

 
Friday, November 2, 2018, 9:44 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
2 Views on Apple

BofA/Merrill downgrades Apple (AAPL,$213.31) to ‘Neutral’ and lowers its price target to $220 from $235, citing concerns about likely further negative estimate revisions. 


The firm sees near-term pressure on Apple shares from iPhone unit growth pressure in emerging markets, deceleration in Services revenue growth given weakening app store trends and investors needing time to adjust to the company’s change in disclosures (no more quarterly unit sales metrics).


Citi remains generally positive, though it does reduce its AAPL price target to $240 from $265. The firm thinks today’s sharp pullback is justified given the latest quarter and guidance, but views the sell-off as a “good opportunity” to buy shares.

 
Thursday, November 1, 2018, 10:44 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
2 Bulls on Paycom

Needham raises its Paycom (PAYC, $124.23) price target to $150 from $130 after the provider of cloud-based HCM software reported strong Q3 results, with revenue up 32%.


The firm says the highlight of the earnings call was the statement by management that the company is “moving up-market to target customers with up to 5,000 employees, vs. 2,000 previously.” 


Needham believes Paycom’s strong history of execution will allow it to compete effectively at the higher end.


Jefferies takes its PAYC target up to $139 from $130, saying it expects Paycom to sustain material growth for years.


In the middle of September, Paycom shares traded to a new all-time high of $164.08.

 
Thursday, November 1, 2018, 9:56 AM — by Rob DeFrancesco, TechStock Radar
Chart Watch: Electronic Arts

Shares of Electronic Arts (EA, $93.15) are starting to show early signs of stability around current levels. 


Traders have begun to step in to buy on dips below the $90 level, watching the recent low of $89.12.


There’s short-term resistance at $95.37. The 50-day moving average is declining from $111.01.

   
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